NYU professor Scott Galloway predicts hundreds of universities will shutter

For those interested in past predictions as a track record, I found Scott's previous predictions here:

2018-2019: https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions

2019-2020: https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions

Though some of his predictions are shaky because they don't provide a timeline. Scott Alexander used to do predictions w/ deadlines + estimated probability. If all goes well you should be able to map your predictions on a perfect line, x axis representing estimated probability and y representing actual percentage which happened.

Perhaps this is because he's a professor of marketing and unaware, but I would've thought any such analysis would include the huge amounts of $ that universities get from doing federally (and other) funded research. Because that factor basically tells me how much they will hurt (or not) by classes being canceled, more than his other mentioned factors. All he talks about is student tuition fees and endowment, as if schools only have those 2 things to burn through.

Universities heavy on research funding have a revenue source and working population base probably equal or greater than the undergrad population, and are much less likely to fold. Undergraduate education and its revenues are in comparison (to use a term from a favorite professor) a pimple on the ass of graduate and professional research funds for those institutions.

Any colleges/universities that are heavily dependent on undergrads and the tuition they pay (at full unsubsidized rack rate, having little to no science research revenue) are the ones most at risk. I.e. the Sarah Lawrences of this world.

Not really an accurate title. The article classifies 89 out of 436 universities as will perish. Most of the article is a condemnation of universities who plan business as normal despite the serious health concerns. Then it goes on to state what factors put universities at risk of shuttering.

All-in-all it does seem like the universities will prefer to lose some percentage of their lives over their livelihoods. On the current path, a 3rd spike seems likely.

Original source: https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-university

I think it's going to be much, much higher.

Meanwhile, outside of the US, we're looking to hire 30 new TT faculty.

Scott Galloway should spend less time making predictions and building his brand, and more time working to improve outcomes for these valuable institutions.