One in six people (in the UK) said they'd refuse a vaccine if it became available, and another one in six weren't sure. (YouGov poll)
It might make distribution to reach herd immunity difficult.
Remember hydrochloroquine?
That would be the most unfortunate irrational, anti-science behaviour that people could have, especially given the criticism of the same administration as anti-scientific.
(Honestly: Crossing fingers the vaccine won't come out of the US so this situation is avoided)
There's a big difference between the hydroxychloroquine fiasco and a developed vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine was something that showed early promise and seized upon by one political side but when it didn't live up to the hype it was seized upon by the other political side.
A vaccine is developed over time and the results released for all to see at each stage in the development. It's much harder to over-hype a vaccine and I think politicians learned their lesson.
IMO, in the US at least, if you refuse the vaccine then insurance should require cost of Covid19 treatment to be 100% patient paid.
Sadly, the vaccine was rushed and botched. Some people ended up with Guillain-Barre.
That said, mass availability of anything by November is probably optimistic.
I distinctly remember reading something that said 60% was the minimum threshold required to ensure that the virus spread as a greatly reduced rate.
HTT targets for influenza is 40% while SARS requires 80%.
Workplaces are going to require people to have the vaccine come back to work if only for liability reasons. I haven't run into workplaces requiring a flu shot and I've worked food service my whole life.
The rest of us will be fine, right?
The challenge for smallpox was more to do it in every remote corner of the planet.
On the other hand, Covid19 is affecting the economy and we're not having any of that in the US after the shutdown devastation so maybe a law requiring a vaccine is in the cards.
edit: thinking about it for a second, i don't see a law requiring it working. The lunatics would go crazy, there would be states refusing to enforce the law. Maybe some sort of incentive would work better, like a federal tax credit for proof of vaccination or something.