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Comment by ModernMech | Hacker News Reader

> hospitals all over the country are handling the virus and not running out of space

If true, what do you make of the following reports?

7/16 - "Manatee County's hospitals hit capacity as COVID-19 cases continue to surge" https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/manatee-countys-hos...

7/16 - "ICU fills up at St. Luke's Nampa hospital, meaning patients must be diverted to Boise" https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/icu-fills-up-at-st-...

7/6 - "Four Tampa-area hospitals at maximum ICU capacity" https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/four-tampa-area-hospitals-...

7/6 - "Hospitals in Florida, Texas and Arizona Are Almost at Capacity as Coronavirus Cases Surge" https://time.com/5863564/hospitals-capacity-coronavirus-surg...

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I would make of it that these are outliers cherrypicked for the scare value in the headlines. The vast majority of hospitals everywhere are doing fine.

In New York, the hospitals are so far under capacity that they're running TV ads begging people to start coming back in for elective procedures.

> In New York, the hospitals are so far under capacity

Do you think 20% exposure (at a cost of 17.5k lives) buys you herd immunity?

Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died [...] To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immu...

That 70% is an early estimate of heard immunity while doing nothing differently than pre-covid.

The hope is that its more like 20% gets you herd immunity while practicing moderate social distancing. It's not too unreasonable. Japan has been able to avoid lockdowns and mass testing by mostly just using masks and avoiding very close conversations.

Cases are surging in Florida and Texas, not New York. New York's wave is past. When New York's wave was at its peak, hospitals and doctors there were absolutely maxed out. There were first hand reports from doctors and nurses on the front line who said as much. If they had not undergone a complete lock down things would have been much worse.

Now we see new waves popping up elsewhere and surprise, their hospitals are filling. Hospitals are having a great time in places where they took the virus seriously. New York did not take it seriously at first and they suffered. Now Texas and Florida are not taking it seriously and they are suffering as well. And you're suggesting that we can just let the virus run rampant and we won't see our healthcare system buckle?

> The vast majority of hospitals everywhere are doing fine.

That's great if you need something done at a hospital that is not super time sensitive; it's not great if you're in the area where hospitals are overful and you have an urgent need.

Epidemic response needs to be done at a regional level in response to what's going on in that region, taking note of what's happening nearby as it might spill over, and learning from other areas within the country and worldwide to try to figure out what works best. It's totally reasonable, if the numbers support it, for some regions to be increasing restrictions and others to be decreasing restrictions. Clear communication from all levels of response would certainly help.

I can find you the same articles pre-2020 with the cause being influenza.

That doesn’t prove that hospitals aren’t filling up because of Covid...

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