1. have you watched this entire technical presentation made by Andrej Karpathy, Senior Director of AI at Tesla? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8
2. if you understand what you've seen in that video, why do you think Tesla will fail?
The issue is the vast, vast gap between the current capability of Autopilot vs. what it is marketed as, and how this false advertising can literally kill the average consumer.
Actually, it is precisely the issue at hand:
From the ruling:
> The Munich court agreed with the industry body’s assessment and banned Tesla Germany from including “full potential for autonomous driving”.... in its German advertising materials.
So Tesla are not allowed to advertise that it has the potential to do it in the future.
whether or not you think tesla is close, just drive a tesla on a narrow road in Germany.
Right now, 99% reasonable self-driving doesn't bother me because I am always in control, and I already know where the car is going to mess up and get ready to take control ahead of time. It works, and it works really well.
But the different between 100% and the 99% is all the difference that matters, and it's colossal.
I hope they can figure this out, but I don't know how. I hope they do.
2. Some company will succeed at L5 FSD, eventually. Just because it can be done does not mean that Tesla will do it. Tesla has been selling Vaporware for a decade, and they are investing a lot of resources in trying to get FSD to work with the hardware they sold customers 5 years ago to save face, while right now we don't know, and many do not believe, that such hardware suffices. Companies that have not tied themselves to such promises are much more flexible from a technology point-of-view to make quicker progress.
For all we know, next year somebody could ship a smaller, better, and cheaper lidar systems, that might give every manufacturer willing to use them a huge advantage over Tesla. Tesla would be in a very tight spot to incorporate such technology into their existing customer base.
I don't think we will see L5 in the next 10-20 years and a lot of things can happen in such a time-frame technology wise.
Do you have a link that explains why the predictions now will be better? I haven't seen much to suggest it, but also honestly kinda stopped paying attention.
I followed all those failures at SpaceX before they landed the first booster, or the Model 3 intro, or fairing catches, or the original Model S. These things all took a lot longer than you'd expect from his comments, but they all happened!
(Want to keep in touch about this bet? I'm maxharris9 on twitter.)
I also think that being so cynical about Tesla's motives is pretty short-sighted from an investment perspective. In the long-term, they don't win if they don't get this right.
This is why Telsa cars run into trucks parked across the street. Their stereoscopic depth map is shoddy and the radar or ultrasound has awful angular resolution that can't tell the difference between an object parked next to the street and one parked in the middle of the street.
> "In the long-term, they don't win if they don't get this right."
They've been claiming they're on the cusp of getting it right in the short-term for years. So far, my cynicism has served me well.