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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

Scroll down to the countries starting to ban fossil fuel vehicles. I think you’re fine for the next 10-15 years, after that I think it’s hazy whether fossil fuel vehicles will be permitted to be used at all if battery electrics take off. My bet is we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035, if not earlier due to refinery unprofitability due to volume declines.

I do look forward to Porsche attempting a competitive EV though!

@JumpCrisscross: Throttled, can’t reply to your comment. “Progress happens slowly, and then all of a sudden.”

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> we reach a tipping point and an outright ban around 2035

Zero chance of this happening in the U.S., U.K. or Germany. I imagine the Gulf, India and China will similarly retain sport driving cultures.

Mass-manufactured ICE vehicles are past their nadir. But mechanical engines will have a long life thereafter.

Based on what?

The minority may love the nostalgia, but sport racing cultures are primarily built on speed and ICE vehicles are already being left in the dust. Another 10 years and I would be surprised if there was a single ICE vehicle that could beat an electric.

Only thing I can think of is growl. Some people like that.

As someone whose daily driver has a throaty mildly-tuned V8, I can agree. ;-)

Be easy enough to hook a speaker system to the acceleration

I think they are already doing stuff like that.

There is some racing that lends itself to electric like stage rally, rally cross and the drag strip. I'd love to drive an electric rally cross car, especially since it's one of the most accessible forms of racing out there.

Circuit racing (in particular endurance racing) is a long way from electrics being competitive (though LMP1 cars certainly use a hybrid powertrain to boost speeds). Le Mans cars currently cover over 5000 km in 24 hours. When Porsche stretched the Taycan to the limit they managed 3300 km in 24 hours. That's roughly a 1950s Le Mans pace (and that as when the track had fewer turns and longer straights).

The engine is very, very, rarely the limit in racecar performance. They're very tightly regulated.

We’re talking engine and transmission at minimum.

Torque from an electric engine is insane. Tesla prototypes literally tore the transmissions apart. This is why a Tesla has the second fastest 0-60 time of 2.28 sec, and the low-end model (Model 3) still has a quick 3.0 sec time

We're rapidly reaching the limit of tire technology, not engines

> We're rapidly reaching the limit of tire technology, not engines

Tesla is supposed to offer a "SpaceX package" with their Roadster that uses compressed air thrusters to overcome even that limit.

How? Unless the compressed air thruster is also going to take complete control over the cars handling... how is it going to overcome the limiting factor of the 4 contact patches your tires need to keep the car pointing in a given direction?

> How? Unless the compressed air thruster is also going to take complete control over the cars handling... how is it going to overcome the limiting factor of the 4 contact patches your tires need to keep the car pointing in a given direction?

I guess we'll have to wait and see how it's implemented.

My understanding is that there are really only 2 times a hypercar is traction limited: accelerating from 0 and breaking. I suspect that those are going to be the only two times the system will kick in and have meaningful impact on the car's performance.

"breaking" != "braking"

No-one wants a car that 'breaks' when they press the pedal.

Even normal, 4 door cars with a little bit of power end up traction limited accelerating at speed

The system can only engage when the car isn't traction limited unless it's somehow taking the tires out of the equation for handling (which I doubt they're doing)

But the thing is, it's not going to be meaningful in any way. You can already get a car that would break traction at almost every gear (there's a 1000HP Honda Odyssey minivan by Bisimoto that needs it's power output limited per gear otherwise it'd just spin in place when you put down)

If the tires don't get better, you're not really able to use power past a certain point.

Things that matter more than raw power are stuff like suspension and weight. Things EVs do not do well with and end up relying on computers to make up for.

This is going to sound like the typical Luddite screeching about how computers ruin anything, but as someone who drives cars as a hobby and has built up a track focused roadster, it really is not the same experience driving a car that needs computers working overtime pulling power and adjusting each tire's speed individually vs a less powerful car that's just well put together and easy to control for mere mortals like myself.

> Another 10 years and I would be surprised if there was a single ICE vehicle that could beat an electric.

I think that really depends on the context.

For most races? You're probably right.

It'll be extremely difficult for electrics to beat gas cars at something like the 24 hours of Le Mans.

I don’t see an inherent issue:

- Teslas are going to be built in such a way that every part runs for 1,000,000 miles

- “Refuelling” in the pit could be as quick as quick-releasing the battery sled, and popping in a charged one in it’s place

A million consumer miles is very different from 3000 endurance racing miles. It's not a coincidence Porsche is the most successful Le Mans team of all time and their cars can be absolutely beat on at the track without missing a step.

The FIA rules around 'refuelling' are incredibly strict and right now replacing batteries in the pit would be highly illegal. The rules can change of course, but with 400+ V and tons of mass that has to be slung around there is no way the FIA would take it lightly. When a couple extra seconds in the pit can make or break a race teams will always try to cut corners, so the FIA takes pit safety extremely seriously.

There is a reason formula-e used 2 cars rather than battery swapping when they didn't have the legs to complete a single race.

> A million consumer miles is very different from 3000 endurance racing miles. It's not a coincidence Porsche is the most successful Le Mans team of all time and their cars can be absolutely beat on at the track without missing a step.

Definitely valid points here. I didn't mean to say that Tesla's million consumer miles meant that they could automatically endure Le Mans, but more that it's clear the technology scales very well. Maybe Porsche will come out of nowhere with an even more stable and more performant electric car that has a 6000mi range and can just hold the pedal down the whole time. Who knows, but my instinct says the eventual winner will definitely be electric.

s/nadir/zenith/, sorry

I think diesel vehicles in metropolitan areas are the worst offenders.

Travelling around Europe, I think these were my biggest pet peeve, as an otherwise incredible and quaint city (such as Porto or Malaga) ends up being tainted with the disgusting smell of diesel fumes.

Petroleum only would be a huge improvement. Of course, electric only would even be better.

there is also a natural cliff where gas stations lose profitability. Considering many today only profit due to convenience store items, and consumer patterns have radically changed involving less random spending as well as less miles driven, this may be even sooner than we think.

Think it will become a matter of having enough money. Maybe it'll cost 10X more but as with all these kinds of policies and restrictions, $ will still speak. Since most of the bans you point to are about new cars, I can already bet that the price for used combustion engine cars will skyrocket depending on model. Hmmm, makes me wonder how one could play this market

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