https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961...
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/great-energy-...
If you look at an EV versus ICE car in isolation, the EV is definitely greener. However, if we look at the whole system and process of electric energy production, gas production, battery production and disposal, etc., I have not seen analyses that compare which is actually greener. I would love to be pointed to this, as I have tried to find it! As far as I can tell from my searching, they are essentially overall the same, except that the effects are spread around in time and place.
Now, I can assume that there is a tacit argument that putting more electric vehicles on the road increases the demand for clean energy because electric vehicles tax electricity production heavier, which is not that green now. However, are electric cars really the primary driving factor for clean electricity production? Actual clean energy production is obviously extremely important.
Also, I don't understand how continually building more and more cars gets us to a cleaner future. I imagine whenever self-driving cars arrive, we'll all just be sitting in packed streets. That doesn't feel necessarily cleaner or futuristic.
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/cleaner-cars-cradle-grave
In summary, it takes about 18 months of driving before an the reduced gasoline emissions compensates for the increased manufacturing emissions.
> I imagine whenever self-driving cars arrive, we'll all just be sitting in packed streets.
Agreed. So many people think that self-driving cars are going to reduce congestion, an argument I don't buy. They'll make congestion much worse IMO.
And yea, I'm not looking forward to the self-driving "utopia". I feel it's solving the wrong problems and will create wholly new problems.
1. There are few car manufacturers, there are many car users. Its easy to scrutinize and regulate car manufacturers through Carbon credits, or some future system so they offset /eliminate the Carbon emission. Similar efforts, like a Carbon tax on gasoline, were shot down previously (in general; there were some passed) for "penalizing consumers" (i.e. no longer an insurmountable issue because mass migration to electric cars are now seen as inevitable).
2. Electricity production is relatively consolidated (solar's decentralization is already a move toward "green energy" so I'll skip its impact). Given the consolidation of energy production, its again easy to use regulation or consumer bargaining power to sift production to "green energy".
In conclusion, while there is valid debate about "Are car factories and electricity production really carbon beneficial compared with ICE cars?", there is no debate that "having solved the decentralized carbon emissions problem (i.e. previously a technology limitation), the next step to improve centralized, large scale factories and electricity production is simple (i.e. an ROI calculation for those companies - e.g. given a factory is already in Texas and active during daylight hours, is it cheaper to produce cars using solar?)".