Hitman-for-hire darknet sites are all scams. This wired article explains how these offerings are all scams.
(Assume the prediction market is completely decentralized and untraceable. Assume there is an accurate way to determine the outcomes of the events in a manner compatible with being untraceable and decentralized.)
If Joe dies and someone gets $500,000 richer I'm sure the police would be very interested to investigate the transaction, but would the bet itself actually violate any laws?
My question is whether it's actually illegal to take this bet, since it doesn't really prove that you're the hitman.
Anyway, in real life a hit costs about $50K.
Basically, jury nullification is a thing, and this is the same principle backward.
Some people seem to think "beyond a reasonable doubt" means the same as "beyond any shadow of a doubt" - but they are very different standards!
Please see people who are convicted on limited or circumstantial evidence because everyone is pretty sure they did it. Example Hans Reiser.
I understand that HN and Reddit like to repeat this fact, but it's really not a useful answer to the question I asked. I think you're saying "no, it's not illegal", but you've masked that opinion with trivia.
> limited or circumstantial evidence [...] Hans Reiser
Reiser plead guilty to murdering his wife and disclosed the location of her shallow grave. I'm not sure how limited or circumstantial that is.
I don't think it's masking the issue with trivia at all. If you conspire to kill someone or indeed to commit any crime and your defense rests on a cute use of the law to remain technically on the side of the law while obviously trespassing beyond it you are only as safe as you can convince the jury you are.
If you are more interested in the actual law we could look at justice.gov
https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual...
Section 1958 renders it illegal: 1) to travel or use facilities of interstate or foreign commerce; 2) with intent that a murder in violation of State or Federal law be committed;
Looking at my state WA states law
RCW 9A.32.030 Murder in the first degree. (1) A person is guilty of murder in the first degree when: (a) With a premeditated intent to cause the death of another person, he or she causes the death of such person or of a third person;
If you in effect arranged for someone to die by betting a large sum of money on a prediction market no judge or jury will pick nits and disregard your intent while placing such a bet.
Hacked websites, bribed operators etc.
Someone with half a million to squander already has the means to disperse of others. Whereas an enemy of the people may have 10,000 detractors, who while otherwise wouldn’t have the means, can pool together a seven figure bounty for $100 each.
In Finland, last year, young man offered his hitman services on dark web and eventually murdered another. Trial started in the beginning of June 2020.
Of course, he was not a professional hitman and outcome very scam'ish.
For the hitman, it's much safer to just take the down payment / etc and not do anything. That's just way more cost effective / lower risk to do that over and over again.
For the person hiring them... no reason to think the hitman won't do the logical thing and not do the hit / walk with the up front cash.... and probably limited no incentive to pay after the deed is done if in fact everyone is anonymous.
Historically speaking hitmen seem to be tied to organizations who the hitman and the employer more or less can trust / provide some level of protection / regular work / other work or at least the promise of it. And generally the the professional hitmen eventually tend to be disposed of by the next hitman after their usefulness to their employer fades...
A system where nobody trusts anyone would seem to only attract scammers and some random idiots.
Hard to imagine it working out any other way.
Beyond that though a hitman seems to assume some level of proximity to the target that authorities could use. Mailing drugs much less so.
And its partially a true story:
https://www.insidehook.com/article/military/real-life-jackal...
Plus you order your goods to the wrong address or use a fake name, and when the heat comes around you say "it wasn't me" and flush your drugs -- they're not going to chase you for months the way they might a murder case.
Obviously exceptions for the guys ordering kilos of coke every quarter, but as long as you put a little bit of effort into CYA no one is going to kick down your door for $80 worth of Molly.
It's trivially easy to create new accounts and maintain parallel alternate accounts on dark net marketplaces, even going so far as giving yourself fake reviews to pump up reputations.
This is such a common scam on dark net markets that it has a name, known as exit scamming. A vendor will build themselves up a good reputation (usually fake) and then scam everyone who transacts with them, cashing out on the reputation. Wash, rinse, repeat with new accounts.
You also run a risk when leaving a bad review. Even if you never buy from that vendor again, you could buy from one of their alternate accounts, and they'll send you fentanyl in your product as retaliation.
It's all turtles it seems ;)
I think all dark markets to date had some escrow systems in place eventually.