Investors say agroforestry is climate friendly and also profitable
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Monocrops[0] (homogeneous fields of crops like corn or soybeans) are easy to build automated robots for. We've been doing that for generations now, starting with combine harvesters[1].
But there are many problems with growing monocrops[2]. Pests are a problem -- they breed and spread disease. And on the soil nutrient side, you have to keep re-fertilizing (and often over-fertilize[3]) every year to keep it going. And still nutrients continue to decline in the food that Americans are eating[4].
If, as a field (of software engineers), we can figure out a way to build robots that allow growing and harvesting plants in heterogeneous environments, that will be a significant step forward to fixing these problems. I'm optimistic that it will be possible in the next decade to build it and make it profitable. :)
If you don't have to use fertilizer and pests don't eat your crops because you haven't created the ideal breeding ground for pests + disease, then this problem should be solved by market forces alone. At least, I hope so!
0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monocropping
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combine_harvester
2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monocropping#Monocropping_diff...
3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilizer#Environmental_effec...
4: https://journals.ashs.org/hortsci/view/journals/hortsci/44/1...
Note that this is different than saying "let's completely ignore the past".
Farming is an far older industry than software engineering, don't you think humans already tried that in the past 10 000 years ?
The scale of monocrop farming today with modern tractors is a very new field as well (no pun intended).
With machine learning specifically, I can see a robot arm being able to farm a lot of mixed crops. This is already happening for the most labor-intensive crops like strawberries[0]. Robots are cheap and can work 24/7.
I think it just a matter of time before computers advance enough to be able to perform the basic, repetitive tasks that humans are able to.
0: https://www.therobotreport.com/strawberry-picking-robot-make...
It took one of the protagonist ten years of testing to find a machine capable of harvesting special-bread peppers. The breakthrough your are looking for isn't for software engineering only - or even at all -. It's a combination of mechanical engineering, biology and hacking. Venture-led startups often lead to short-lived niche products made to impress silicon valley. It's not sustainable, and it's not the future.
Often what you are saying is true. Except in this case we have access to new technologies that have only existed for a small percentage of that 10,000 years. It might be worth re-examining what we think we know about growing food in light of these new technologies. That is, things that would have been ideal but were practically impossible may now be possible.
Right now, all that I understand from your opinion is that you think robots are bad because of mono-cultures, but the parent would argue equating those two things is incorrect.
But it's a double-edged sword. The abstraction has been hugely beneficial to society as a whole. Specialization lets us create entirely new industries.
These problems can't be ignored forever though. Eventually the dollar figure behind them will motivate even the most conservative actors. If it's cheaper to use better technology, and that technology doesn't have the same side effects, then there is no reason to continue to harm.
We're just not there yet.
I think these very abstractions are the cause of class inequalities, and by extension, racial and gender inequalities as well. Many identity issues come from that specialization. We've defined worth to society to how economically productive someone is. There are many things that society as a whole and individuals can benefit from, but society don't value them economically to pay for them. People involved in that (such as artists and musicians) are constantly struggling with the tension of authentic expression as an artist and creating something popular so they can make a living wage.
I won't even go into how these abstractions are a detriment to mental and emotional health, let alone, someone's spiritual life.
I am not advocating for things to go back "to the way they used to be".
Rather, I think there is a way to move forward. I think it will involve decentralizing our food system using resilient, and regenerative practices at the household and neighborhood scale. People will have to become more involved with growing their food, and that is generally a good thing. We have collected a number of design patterns that can yield nutrient-dense foods without as much labor, and reducing transport costs to ... going to your backyard (or going down the street).
Our society is already moving towards more remote work (for some segment of our populous at least), and that will drive a trend towards the hyperlocal. The big missing piece is the decentralized food system.
If advances in technology can decrease the burden on farming then we may see people willingly choose that lifestyle.
That sounds more like a country house — or a tax dodge— than it does a working farm.
The environmental problems we're facing in agriculture seems more closely related to our need to improve yield given limited land / proximity with customers.
If you hate on agricultural technology, you're just hating on the effect, not the cause.
Most people are against your so-called "environmental problems". It's just that solutions have to be financially sustainable besides being environmentally sustainable. The original comment you replied to was suggesting how that trade-off can be fixed with technology, just like many other trade-offs before it.
The idea of bringing companion planting, cover cropping, etc to conventional agriculture by way of increased automation is a fascinating one, in part because of how pragmatic it is. It could allow those methods to scale much more than they do today, and allow a conventional farmer to adopt them incrementally, realizing the savings piecemeal (better yield here, reduced fertilizer use there, etc). This is going to be way more realistic than trying to reboot the whole system from scratch, especially to a method that requires 100x the labour inputs.
And it's definitely closer to the land than the other high tech direction, which is closed loop indoor hydroponic/aquaponic system— essentially doubling down on the monoculture approach by isolating the whole operation even more from unwanted natural inputs (pests, weather, and so on).
> but it would be a huge shift to grow everything that way, and it's far from clear that it's even workable for the volumes needed for the big staple crops like corn, wheat, and soy.
Agree completely. But I think a huge shift is very much needed, and this shift may decrease our dependencies on staples like corn, much of which goes to cattle feed and fuel uses when we have other, more ecological methods like pastured beef, solar etc. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/time-to-rethink-c...
RE 2nd paragraph, also totally agree with, minus the "100x labor inputs". If done properly, bio-mimicry in Ag should decrease labor inputs as you leverage the advantages of natural plant/soil nutrient cycling, reduced watering and tillage from cover cropping and soil development, reduction of pesticide application by attracting animal/insect diversity etc.
From my understanding, "conventional" farming (I say ironically as we've really only been practicing these methods for ~60-70 years vs millennia of small scale farming that is the real "conventional"methods lol) has forced us to increase labor inputs - adding fertilizers, pesticides, annual tillage, managing irrigation systems - these are all things that can be eliminated, if the proper systems are put in place.
Gabe Browns book, Dirt to Soil was an eye opening read. Cheers.
No one is growing wheat on a small scale, much less in the kind of quantities that would allow me to have several dozen kg with which to bake through the winter. Same with legumes, as far as I know.
In any case, I'm not trying to impose a solution here. Quite the opposite; the food system is a large problem that requires multiple irons in the fire, and that may well look like reinventing large-scale cropping to be less destructive and chemical-intense, while simultaneously moving fruit and veg production closer to home with smaller scale operations.
My point is that there is a lot more options out there, and what is possible is a lot greater than people think.
As far as wheat goes, I have not heard much from permaculturists doing that. I hear more about cultivating amaranth and quinoa as nutritionally dense pseudo grains.
Generally, I also hear a lot more about winter squashes. That follows the design principle of “Catch and Store Energy”, with squashes being a very durable store of sunlight and nutrients. Speghetti squashes can be made into pasta-like noodles. Not so much with bread.
Cauliflower can be processed to make a kind of flour that can be used in a lot of baking. Again, I don’t know the yields that can sustain a family. Depending on where you are, they are a fall crop. (They are a winter crop for the lower Sonoran, zone 9b/10). Probably grown in succession so that they can be had for a while. Maybe the flour can be stored over winter.
There are also sunchokes. These are in the sunflower family, and are considered invasive. They are very hardy, and their tubers can be harvested during a time when few other plants can be harvested. Their flowers open late season, and also nourish pollinators at a time when they don’t have a whole lot of options. They will grow in poor, depleted soil, and will probably edge out other pioneer plants. So not bread for the winter, but a good source of calories nonetheless.
Maybe that will the challenge my wife presents to me: finding the a good set of crops that would allow her to bake.
There are many design patterns in regenerative agriculture that works, but are low-tech or no-tech. It isn't that you need to be anti-tech; it is that we don't need high tech to solve these problems. They are low-tech because you are allowing natural processes to do things on its own, for the most part. Nature, not technology, is the "automation".
I believe we are of similar understanding here. Great to read your responses here. Here's to the wish that we could share a conversation at some point. Trade notes.
I agree with you.
There is something deeply broken about our human experience and that comes from becoming abstracted away from the ecology. It isn't just that we have to heal the plant; we also have to heal ourselves. (And frankly, if human civilization self-destructs and humans get wiped... the planet will recover just fine, eventually. Outside of maybe nukes going off everywhere).
We have come to think of ourselves as apart from the ecology rather than a part of the ecology. We think that the ecology is a factor in our economy, rather than our economy being a part of the over-all ecology. Software engineers in particular, have this weird aversion to getting their hands dirty with hardware, and so we abstract ourselves away from the hard, dirty bits. It blinds us to simpler, more practical solutions.
I think there is a place for technology, but only in terms of how it supports the direct human experience with the land, rather than getting in between. For example, I think the free and open web is highly vital to helping people share ideas and methods. Every single locale is different, but there are design patterns that may work. Seeing all the forums, subreddits, podcasts and blogs on this subject ... we already have the technology we need to pull all of this off.
And none of this involves VCs, Big Tech, or aggregators (from Stretechery, Aggregation Theory). It will be the land stewards. Those aggregation of wealth are fundamentally based upon the extraction of resources (be they from the earth or the people), and then controlling access to them. It's to the point where we have to depend upon buying into the civilization in order to live and survive, but it is breaking down and now the best we can come up with is the universal basic income. (When right there, in your backyard, you can be a part of something that nourishes you directly!)
The irony is that, the same skill and mindset software engineers use to design an appropriate architecture from a myriad of design patterns is the same kind of mental process one can analyze a site and design resilient, regenerative, and decentralized food systems.
I thought this was solved literally 1000 years ago: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-field_system
0: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/soil-depletion-an...
You can grow more than a single plant together, and depending on the combination, they can synergize in a way that helps both of them grow. Some of that is due to pest management (where one plant species deters pests that raid the other). Some add nutrients (nitrogen fixers and other dynamic accumulators). Some can grow at different canopy layers (such as growing ground cover to help retain moisture while taller plants are used as trellises for vining plants).
Some plants have deep tap roots that break up compacted soil and help draw out nutrients to make them bioavailable. Many of them are pioneer plants and are considered weeds or considered invasive.
The advantages are clear: you can decide when to do these things, and do them on a short schedule. Its hard to argue waiting 5 years for some remediation project to maybe work, when I have a chisel plow right over there in the shed.
I think the main path out of this is to have decentralized food systems, and this is where regenerative and resilient design patterns really shine. I think it starts with a shift in the mindset, where instead of seeing wealth as coming from extraction and hoarding, to seeing wealth in terms of being stewards of regenerative processes.
We have pseudo-regenerative processes in the financial sector with compounding interest, but you can't directly eat money. I can eat the stuff from my backyard.
The beautiful thing about participating in building a decentralized food system is that I don't have to convince you, or anyone else on HN to affect collective action. I can start doing these things in my home, and trade things with other like-minded people. I can offer up the excess abundance to my friends, family, and neighbors. Some of them may want to take up the practices themselves.
Just to be clear, I used shortcuts too. I am using raised beds and importing compost and manure (buying them from big box stores). But I'm also taking the time to plant edible perennials. I only found out later, there are many ways to get even quicker turn around time -- sprouts, fast growing annuals, succession planting. I'm learning. Next year's growing season will incorporate more.
Do you have an alternative to this? This is basically animal behaviour, it's not unique to humans. Most of that hoarding is out of an effort to get a mate, too.
Plants are generally more cooperative than they are competitive, and groups of plants that cooperate will do better together than by themselves. Trees will establish a network of roots, and shunt nutrients to trees within the grove that are not doing so well. Just because some plant species will engage in chemical warfare with some species doesn't mean it won't cooperate with others, and there are many examples of such cooperation. This idea that nature is based on competitive pressure is not wholly true; there is a whole aspect of cooperative processes that occur in ecology.
Animals (an insects), if you actually observe them, can also be more cooperative than competitive. It depends on how you set it up.
Some examples: chickens are micrograzers, and sheep are grazers. They don't compete for the same niche. Due to the size of their mouth, sheep cannot eat plants past a certain height. Chickens will also eat bugs. That includes eating the bugs off of the sheep, if you let them.
Yeah, my chickens get into my tomatoes sometimes. They scratch at the green mulch I put down in the garden. They will fly over the small fence to get to it.
But a different perspective: I let them out into the main yard, and they like the forage there more than they like it in my garden. They help keep the cricket population down (which helps keep the black widow spider population down. The fertilize my backyard (which has poor soil fertility from the previous owner). Their scratching to get at things help aerates the soil, and bring in more fertility.
So I don't have to compete with my chickens. I can shape the circumstances such that their natural instincts further the overall health of the system.
A few bleeding hearts can run a parallel economy for good X with an alternate value function, but this doesn't really scale in and of itself.
Now, if someone combines alt grid / alt farms with lobbying for punitive tax in the smallest surrounding jurisdiction that can enforce it, perhaps that might work.
If modern agriculture is bad for soil in the long run, the owners of the soil surely will have an opinion about that. That's not even an externality.
The only thing holding back soil sustainability would be high interest rates. But that hasn't been a thing in more than a decade.
While they can pump in nitrogen and phosphorus, they can get away with trashing the soil as much as they want. But if phosphorus becomes scarce they'll be suddenly left with ruined soil and no cost-effective work-around.
Can you expand on this point some? I'm trying to understand but I don't really see the problem. Whether the nutrition comes from the soil or the fertilizer doesn't really seem that important. I get what other posters have said about vegetables in the past being more nutritious but it's not clear to me that this matters terribly much compared to the accessibility gains from produce being cheaper and still nutritious (ableit less so).
Currently, there's a lot of fossil fuels involved.
However, soil fertility is not just about the chemical makeup of the soil. There are soil bacteria and mycellium that symbiotically live at the roots to help plants make use of those nutrients. Root systems of plants grow together, and plants biochemically communicate with each other. Roots also need oxygen, so aerated soil matters. Plants that die back in the soil leave their roots in place, slowly decomposing and releasing other nutrients for use of other plants, and other organisms such as earthworms. Those same roots — both larger tap roots, and fine branches of the root system, changes the absorptive qualities of the soil so that it can hold water and release them.
In other words, healthy, fertile soil is very much alive, and helps store and regulate water and nutrients for the plants that live and die on the soil.
Healthy, fertile soil can support life directly in a way in a much tighter feedback loop. Using amendments requires more intervening steps. If the top soil gets eroded away, that top soil has to get imported, creating a longer supply chain. The longer the supply chain, the more fragile it becomes. It becomes less adaptive, more sensitive to volatility.
Another is that the optimization toward short term yield is often at the cost of long-term fertility. We build these fragile systems that are optimized for scale and yield as if that fertility will not run out. If the soil is depleted somewhere, importing soil amendments, or even top soil, has to come from somewhere. Even if the supply chain is not cut, at some point, the resources to maintain that longer supply chain will run out.
This setup also conditions people into a situation where they now have to rely on currency to supply basic needs. That, in and of itself, drives the growing wealth inequality of today.
To address that wealth inequality, we are now seriously considering universal basic income. But if you looked at universal basic income as just one type of energy and nutrient flow, it is ridiculous that an easier method for obtaining those basic needs can be had by allowing each household, or neighborhood to supply some of those needs locally.
There is a small town in Canada where the community got together to convert one of their public spaces into a food forest. Volunteers came in to dig and plant. Local businesses stepped up to provide transportation to bring in the compost, the perennials, shrubs, and trees. The food forest was designed in a way so that the natural rainfalls can sustain the growth. The perennials all create a long-term supply of food. Once the initial capital was invested, there is little ongoing maintenance.
People in the community can then go into food forest and get free food. There are probably some education on identifying what is edible (and there are plenty of it). Food grows on trees and on the land. A food forest doesn’t require currency to feed people, and as such, is resilient to a deflationary contraction of the economy.
And that is just one regenerative system. Individuals who have access to multiple, local, regenerative food systems have a greater food security than those that do not.
And that is just food, one out of a handful of the foundational survival needs. There is also shelter, warmth, clothing, water.
Permaculture design looks at the whole system, such that all of the basic needs can be partially, if not wholly, met with regenerative systems. A individual within a community that has access to multiple regenerative processes that can meet all of the basic needs do not require universal basic income. When something like the pandemic happens, they are in a far better place than individuals who do not have access to any regenerative processes.
Such an individual can build the higher needs (I am referring to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs) on a foundation of resilient and regenerative processes. With such a solid foundation of abundance, there is less reason to hold others in contempt. Or to cast out and alienate another group out of fear and anxiety over survival needs.
That fertility of the land extends into creativity of the people. The permaculturists I encounter tend to generate many new ideas. There is a liveliness and exuberance that is a contrast to the general malaise and loneliness of many urban and rural residents.
It isn’t as if building this is not for free either. This does require a significant shift in the mindset, in how one views and experiences the world. There is hard work required. Your hands get dirty. But I would say, it is also more fulfilling — not just nourishing the body, but also more intangible needs for people to have meaningful and purposeful lives.
First jack up punitive taxes, then let tech do it's job. Market economics works far better when demand comes before supply.
https://www.sare.org/Learning-Center/Books/Building-Soils-fo...
- Someone figured out a way to grow comfrey (and other nitrogen fixers) in a separate field with low maintenance to supply mulch material for the main crop, without having to rely on animal manure.
- There are people who built their animal barn at the top of a hill and dug swales to transport runoff from manure downward. They plant edibles all along the swale. Once established, low maintenance.
- I saw another practice that involved growing grasses, and using grazers and micrograzers to increase fertility in depleted soil. It’s part of an overal system where fences and chicken trailers are used to move grazing around.
Some of these practices may not be practical at scale, but that is not the point — these practices work well for decentralized food system
There's a way to do this kind of a thing with perennials, and better yet, in the backyard or in the neighborhood garden. That is as local and "farm to table" as you can get.
More mechanical contraptions also have a long history, and do actually include lasers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_scarer#Lasers
But most pests are rather microscopic. I doubt we will ever construct silicon/metal hardware better able to operate at the level of, say, spores than the biological systems that are natural to that environment.
All of those solutions are more resilient than microdrones, computer vision, and laser. These high tech solutions require a long global supply chain. They don't make them as robust as as they used to. Further, having multiple, redundant pest management systems means that when one of them fails, they won't all fail.
just like how if a house is overpriced and real estate investors believe it that doesn't mean there's going to be adequate downward pressure (in expectation) to prevent an unlucky family from overpaying on the house. (there is upward pressure, though, because of house flipping)
and since entry into the agriculture industry is pretty steep, it's not like anyone who has an idea can just build a farm with a cool robust idea that is more optimal than the current solution.
the other difficulty is the extensive time horizons to implement the solution suggested by hosh. farmers can't just drop everything they're doing this season, implement regenerative ag ideas today and reap the benefits come harvest this year.
it's the same issue with organic. transitioning to organic is a time and cost intensive process for farmers (it can take a few years to be fully certified). only a small percentage of farms produce organic even though it commands a higher price.
edit: added this year to end of paragraph 4
Three kinds of evidence point toward declines of some nutrients in fruits and vegetables available in the United States and the United Kingdom: ... 3) recent side-by-side plantings of low- and high-yield cultivars of broccoli and grains found consistently negative correlations between yield and concentrations of minerals and protein, a newly recognized genetic dilution effect.
I think more automation is only going to make the nutrition content problem far worse. Industrial agriculture has optimized the strains largely based on consumer preference - consumers vote with their dollars for fruit that look consistently like their ideal vegetable or fruit (i.e. round, bright red tomatoes). They pay a lot of money for produce out of season so it's far more profitable to ship long distance so they have to look good and have a decent shelf life after a long transport too. We've been running breeding programs to optimize for those variables for a century or more without ever considering their impact.
These evolutionary pressures combined with yield optimization seem to strongly select against nutrition, sugar content, and flavor. For example, my parents only started planting their homestead a year or two ago but already this year the peaches, raspberries, and apples are leagues better than anything I can find in stores or farmers markets and bring me back to the food I remember before I moved to the United States. I can't easily test the nutritional content but I bet it's much better, even with the over-fertilization that they have to do (despite being in California).
Once we start optimizing for automation requirements as well as everything else - to justify the extra capital expense - I'm afraid the quality of the food will get even worse. Every operation, even the "organic" ones, falls prey to loss of quality beyond a certain size and it's largely because of economic pressure that I suspect will only get worse.
(Which may not be a terrible trade-off, but still.)
Also, because we're now in the 2020s, they are the worlds largest purchaser of drones, even beyond the military.
A lot of fascinating, cutting edge stuff is going on at BLM and DoI.
The thing that bothers me is how they lease out public lands essentially for free to stockmen who proceed to destroy the landscape.
They are all just giving the consumer what they want - low cost meat - which requires a ton of land both for grazing and for growing animal feed.
Asking them to raise the price on the stockmen is also to ask them to raise prices on consumers. I don't necessarily disagree with that idea, but (pun intended), the consumer has long been the holy cow of American politics.
In reality, these policies are political shenanigans. No Republican wants to be the first to stop providing welfare to the Cliven Bundy types that one can find lurking under many cowboy hats.
[0] https://beef2live.com/story-ranking-states-beef-cows-0-10818...
I don't doubt at all the environmental destruction being wrought. However, the land's use is supporting some market for beef though, or else why would the question of $1 leases to stockmen exist?
Is it just that it's cheap and marginal (in both cost and quality) land that can be used for marginal production increases, or is it supporting some niche high cost beef sub-market based on its wilder place of production (high alpine beef)? It can't just all be a UBI scheme for alpine beef ranchers.
Every one of my travels to western states and every conversation I've had with other cattlemen there and elsewhere implies that it is exactly that. Perhaps once upon a time it was something else, and as the situation changed our government didn't keep up. I imagine that numerous bureaucrats at BLM and other agencies have some personal interests in the disastrous way that things are done. Some call this a "principal-agent problem".
Likewise, the various stupid wars we in USA fight aren't at all about our security or saving democracy or any of the other myths. Those are "UBI schemes" for armaments manufacturers and their employees in politics and the media.
"It can't just all be a UBI scheme for alpine beef ranchers, can it?"
As in, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were, but haven't had the conversations you've had first hand.
Billions of wallstreet speculative dollars to pump water out of the ground as fast as possible.
No one wins, but a percentage gain on a balance sheet.
https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/images/sub...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Valley_land_subsidence
Shepard got his inspiration from Permaculture [3] and the books, "Tree Crops", [4] and "The One Straw Revolution". [5]
1: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16441733-restoration-agr...
3: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/381988.Permaculture
4: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/714112.Tree_Crops
5: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/976905.The_One_Straw_Rev...
Lots of permaculture practices are pure dogma and don't have a scientific justification.
All the permaculture farms I could find were profitable thanks to free outside input or through selling training sessions.
https://www.forstwirtschaft-in-deutschland.de/index.php?id=5...
Is there anyone familiar with this field who tell a clear story of what their idea is, and how planting trees in existing farms will work in practice to accomplish all the results they predict? I'm sure it's an interesting story.
Part of the reason its so difficult to summarize is because its about taking a systems approach to the farming/biology and therefore it is infinitely varied in practice.
- Growing trees in rows alongside feed crops (like hay) is more profitable for farmers because they gain additional income from fruit trees + lumber sales.
- More trees that get to grow pulls CO2 from the atmosphere and is good for the environment.
- There is a symbiotic relationship with the soil and trees that is beneficial for the health of other plants. This also helps with soil blowing away due to wind barriers + roots holding it down. Less erosion.
- Pests can't travel as easily between "segmented" fields of crops because they are obstructed by trees. This helps mitigate risk for farmers.
- Higher income per acre when you intermix trees in the fields where livestock graze. You can go harvest the fruit trees while the grass grows for the cows to graze on.
The problem is that these changes require time to make. Trees don't sprout up overnight and that's a problem for farmers, but there is a big environmental incentive for it. Maybe the government should step in to incubate these kinds of projects? They may be the only institution with the long-term economic incentive to do so.
If not government what other sort of institution do you think has the ability to make such civilization scale investments, with the associated short-term risks? Corporations won't do it, nor will venture capital, private equity, investment banks, retail investors. What's left?
> From my understanding of the federal governments involvement in agriculture subsidies, the government seems to be much more in support of the entrenched, large-scale industrial farming systems.
Which kind of demonstrates that it's capable of supporting a long-term investment in agriculture, but that it is perhaps putting that support behind the wrong approach considering the threat of climate change.
Case in point: The US had a great opportunity to sell alternative energy sources as way to get off Middle East oil after 9/11. Instead we continued to consume oil like there's no tomorrow while squandering trillions on fruitless wars.
The problem with any revamp is that powerful incumbents wield the most power. They are capable of controlling the rate of change. In the early 2000s, Exxon and other oil companies were the most powerful, influential businesses on the planet, and they weren't about to let their politicians endorse a shift to renewables.
The problem, I think, is one of volume- I don't see the factory farms shutting down in favor of techniques that require broader skill sets (tree harvesting, land management) beyond what they are already hiring for and investing technology in, especially since per-square-area production of meat is substantially smaller.
I would love to see factory farms convert to silvopasture, especially if that means lower prices for things like nuts, but the broader skill set and management challenges make me think they will continue to be niche competitors to, not replacements of, our current supply.
aren't nuts in the US stupid cheap as it is? American almonds are everywhere in Europe, and cost less than locally grown ones.
(And they taste of nothing, I am not sure if it's because they get harvested earlier, because of preservation or because of the cultivar)
Some nuts are still very expensive, though, and pound for pound beef can be cheaper than many.
The part of the video that was the most interesting was the farmer saying "this works. If I don't sell, I don't live, and I do sell" (not an exact quote).
Intriguing indeed.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23631196 / https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSPNRu4ZPvE
Permaculture design looks at the whole system. So not just trees, but also things to plant with the trees. With planting along contours and adding swales to catch rainfall, and direct it to flow through everything. Incorporating animals into the system, such as grazers (cows, sheep, goats), and micrograzers (chickens, ducks, geese).
Probably the biggest thing not discussed in the article is how permaculture design can lead to decentralized food systems. A decentralized food system is not something that VCs can invest capital in and expect multiple returns on, but I think in the long run, that is where we as a civilization need to move towards.
There will always be room for trade in things that you cannot produce locally such as coffee, but for almost every other thing, there are local solutions.
Open Source Ecology [1] attempts to go the high-tech route and they may get somewhere, but they are only one of many approaches to localizing. With the internet we can have many groups working on localizing their own needs and sharing their successes and failures with the world. Add some gamification and wholla we have people competing to actully figure out how to live on this planet while leaving the place better afterwards.
Note that a completely local system would probably not have much need at all for state backed currency except for trade. [1] http://www.opensourceecology.org
OSE has a permaculture page on their wiki, though hardly anyone added anything in there. This kind of stuff is not well-organized.
I thought, for example, building a graphdb-based lookup system for planning companion planting.
Another is some kind of decentralized barter system. Without being beholden to generating huge returns, I think this would be really useful. But like pioneer plants and “weeds”, I see a lot of permies using whatever adhoc means they have to trade information and barter for services. (But it is why I became very interested in Free Software, mesh networking, and raspberry pis. The supply chain that supports the internet is still fragile, and is currently coopted by Big Tech).
Then when you read:
> [Someone] estimates that agroforestry systems can create eight times more profit than conventional agriculture.
you have to ask yourself: "Profit after subsidies? But who said you'll get the same subsidies? If you can actually turn a profit, they might not subsidize you at that point?"
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[1] - For more information on these subsidies (which I'm not opposed to, it's complicated):
* In the EU it's apparently 59 Billion EUR/year , according to this: https://farmsubsidy.org/
* Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_subsidy
Lots of company greenwash and pretend to "compensate" their CO2 emissions by paying farms like that to plant trees.
And that is very profitable as costs to plant a tree compared is a lot lower than the income received from a companies in compensation.
And now, vulture funds realized that they can make a lot of money on the back of the carbon reduction market!
I realise it's not something you can scale or automate easily, but I'm not really looking for that. Just a few hectares for personal use. I understand it will take many years for the trees to grow
The Complete What, Why & How of Agroforestry
https://isha.sadhguru.org/us/en/blog/article/complete-what-w...
I don’t live in the right zone, but I tell my friends in the lower hemispheres that when they have a child, they must plant at least 1/2 acre of forest. Or a fruit orchard or a hardwood grove. Why? Because at its worst, it’s Ag but is green and income producing. And at its best it’s green, Carbon sequestering long term..medium benefits for a hardwood grove with ebony or teak or rosewood that are super slow growing and will grow with the child..leaving them a legacy and an inheritance.
If anyone wants to collaborate for such a project, please reach out(my handle at gmail). I am still researching for the northern hemisphere.
The guy who invented/coined "Syntropic" agriculture grows the world's best cocoa beans at 3x the yield of similar-quality conventional farms with no inputs. He also gets a lot of other crops from the same land.
Life is four-billion-year-old nanotech and it works really well. Get with it money dudes.
(Conventional agriculture is, in retrospect, almost the dumbest thing you can do with land.)
Ah, so VCs have discovered sharecropping.
Wow, sounds profitable I suppose.
This is both exciting and depressing. A massive effort and it still only offsets 1/30th of global emissions.
Fixing climate is not going to be based in “profitability”, at least in any near term sense. It is about dramatically reducing our CO2-based economic activity to preserve the planet for future generations. Capitalism is not geared for that kind of calculation.
His book "Restoration Agriculture" details his system, which can be likened to agroforestry.
There are others like him too.
And he's been invited to and giving a lot of talks about it at many confs for years:
Watch "Treating the Farm as an Ecosystem with Gabe Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil Health"
That is, people do need food, but humanity over-produces food massively already [1]. And in many countries, you'll collapse economically if you try to live by selling food - and it's government subsidies which keep farming afloat.
[1] - Of course there's also massive hunger due to the failure of our species to more reasonably distribute the food it produces, biases in which kinds of food get produced where and when etc.
I guess if we get into something more mixed then that they haven't really rediscovered orchards, they've rediscovered permaculture!
I've mowed, raked, and baled a fair amount of hay over the years. This involves driving tractors and trucks around in fields pulling easily damaged implements in precise circles. Doing so in the presence of lots of mature trees seems a daunting task...
Growing food under a forest canopy with plenty of pruning, which creates healthy soil and less/no need for fertilizers. It's an effort to mimic a forest ecosystem and let things grow in their natural way (livestock is another aspect).