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Comment by robbiep | Hacker News Reader

So basically focus on isolating all people above 60, all people with comorbidities, and any with genetic sequences that are ill-defined, likely many of them that we haven’t uncovered, and more expensive to test for than Covid screening?

Easy.

Or lockdowns, easy accessibility to testing and good contract tracing. Which has worked well in lots of countries

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> Which has worked well in lots of countries

Has it really? Lots of people in LTC facilities have died, no?

I’m not talking about Sweden, or the US, or Italy or the UK or France, But NZ, Vietnam, China and Australia (current flare up not withstanding) have pursued policies of lockdowns, contract tracing and heavy testing. Your proposal is more convoluted and relies on the imperfect information we have regarding susceptibilities (genetic susceptibilities) being correct, and being able to scale tests to a couple billion people almost immediately so we can tell who should stay inside.

Sure, but it's likely that this won't be going away. So as soon as you relax lockdown, it may well come back. Unless there's a vaccine, which I'm not betting on. And then there's the chance of another zoonotic virus in a few years. Time will tell, but it may turn out that isolating vulnerable populations is the best long-term strategy.

You’re right that it’s a marathon not a race. But isolating the vulnerable (on a semi permenant Basis) is not easy or good for these people. With good testing infrastructure and contact tracing, we can minimise harm. We just have absolutely no definite idea who are those who are otherwise healthy who are going to end up hospitalised (say for my age group 30-40 males it currently looks like 1:500 will end up needing hospital support) and that’s even before you look at those who may do fine without hospital but still be carrying some serious consequences (ie original poster’s partner).

I for one would like to avoid getting this altogether

Maybe more than marathon. I mean, the influenza strain that caused the 1918 pandemic is still circulating. Notwithstanding herd immunity through vaccination.

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