Never Have I Seen So Much Fake Unemployment and Jobs Data by the Bureau of Labor | Hacker News Reader

Never Have I Seen So Much Fake Unemployment and Jobs Data by the Bureau of Labor

wolfstreet.com

115 pointsjollofricepeas19 comments

This is way worse than when the census survey for median incomes was quietly changed a few years ago to make it seem like things were getting better [1]. This makes me question if the fault is with the BLS survey itself, or with the people reporting on the data.

[1] https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/09/us-median-hou...

The definitions are different and always have been.

There is a long history of reasoned debate about which measure is better and what the differences are, and there are many worthwhile articles on the subject.

This angry rant is not one of them.

What I don't understand from the article is why I should believe the Labor Department over the Bureau of Labor? There is no evidence presented, the author just states there is a difference and then concludes it is the Bureau of Labor who is wrong. Am I missing something?

Department of labor would be basing it on hard numbers. The number of people receiving federal benefits. If you fudge those numbers, they wouldn't add up. Bls bases their numbers on surveys. So there is a lot more room to manipulate numbers there.

The BLS is the bureau within the labor department that computes these numbers. The BLS is the department of labor.

  There are different numbers based on unemployment claims vs. a survey of people who say they're looking for work.  It is possible to look for work while not being eligible for unemployment insurance, for instance.

During COVID in some places it is possible to receive benefits while not actively looking for work, as the government has shut down many jobs. This is a matter of nuances in the definition of the figures.

Does the data account for reduced hours workers. Because many people receiving the federal unemployment subsidy of $600/month are only working less hours, but are still employed. The same goes for all the gig workers making less right now but still technically working.

So unless that data is broken out, it seems plausible that the dol number includes employed and reduced hour workers where as the bls survey is just asking if you have "some" employment or not.

What a house of cards the U.S. economy is. I am truly worried wondering when the other shoe is going to drop.

When the hopium that wall street is smoking runs out. Probably the end of November.

If half of small business are destroyed, who benefits? Wall Street will emerge from this with far greater control.

Hahaha no disrespect, but I’ve been seeing almost this exact conversation continually for at least 20 years (the number of years I’ve been curious about economics).

At this stage, it doesn’t matter what runs out, who takes the fall, or anything else (save the democratic power of the people): the power structure will do whatever it takes to maintain that house of cards.

Fractional reserve lending alone can prop up the system almost indefinitely. (Feel free to debate this if you feel strongly, but A. it’s only 1 tool in the garage, and B. Arguments about “they can’t” or “it’s not legal” are irrelevant because they will simply change or circumvent the law.)

I've been saying this since QE1. A nation cannot continuously devalue it's currency forever while producing less and less of value. The collapse has already happened and we're just running on fumes.

The nation produces hope. Hope is worth something.

It’s worth market “utility”, but not value. That is the point.

> What a house of cards the U.S. economy is.

No, actually pre-corona it was the strongest in world history because the US actually makes things, unlike the European "sick men" welfare economies.

My concerns are:

1) the societal rot that has set in, that will ultimately weaken the US and has already resulted in a populist President. Health insurance and education costs are an assault on the middle class and small business owners.

2) the monetary life support provided to Wall Street since 2008 with no effort at unwinding federal support for private industry since then. We've doubled-down during corona.

That the unemployment numbers are politicized is hardly a shocking claim.

However, given the demonstrated willingness of the current Administration's detractors to attack the way the man drinks water or descends a ramp, it seems odd that a substantive story like "The Numbers Are Baked" has been overlooked.

Home prices will fall. Lots of tenants probably not paying already right now. Commercial properties - lower demand. Job security in the near future is huge problem especially if the next shutdown will be imposed in winter.

I remember reading a third of tenants in LA did not pay april rent

The unemployment figures were conveniently off by a few million last month too. Clearly they are being manipulated to prop up the stock market. It's so obvious.

A lot of things look suspicious if you've never noticed them before and have no frame of reference. Official statistics have always been revised over time, and any given person may or may not have ever noticed, and nothing forces the media to notice or be consistent about it.

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