It takes a hell of a lot to bore me when the topic relates to startups/tech/silicon valley but all this Bubble Talk seems so silly and pointless.
Why is this topic so damn fascinating to people?
Why is this topic so damn fascinating to people?
If there's no bubble, then the current happy days are likely to continue: lots of money chasing after good ideas, huge rewards for the winners and so as a result easy access to angel investments and high valuations. Yay! So it makes sense to think of a strategy focused raising a lot of money on great terms.
On the other hand, if there is a bubble, a very different strategy is called for. One option is to sneak in and raise money at bubbleicious valuations before it pops. But that risks setting expectations with investors that will be impossible to meet in a post-bubble environment -- a recipe for a rocky medium term. Another option is to batten down the hatches and focus on getting to cash-flow positive ASAP to leave yourself in the best position to pick up the pieces as other unsustainable companies crumble. Or as I said elsewhere in the thread, maybe it's a good time to be contrarian: work out where the bubble is likely to be, and position yourself differently so that when it pops you can be there as one of the first exciting post-bubble companies. And it's also possible to take a straddling strategy, ready to go either way depending on whether or not it's a bubble.
Of course it's impossible to know for sure what the answer is. But hearing and understanding various perspectives (right and wrong) and others' reaction to them really helps map out the strategy space and highlight the best places to be.
Of course on a long enough time scale a bubble in tech is inevitable almost no matter how you slice it.