Thanks for asking this. As someone who's probably going to have to get a job in this climate very soon, I was about to pose nearly the same question.

>...and yesterday’s “Who is hiring” had plenty of postings.

At the time of writing (July 2020), the current thread is over day old with 578 comments. By contrast, the July 2019 thread had 912 comments.

I did happen across this comment, which is bleak: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23586183

Likewise upon hearing about senior engineers with 20+ years of experience being out of jobs and grinding leetcode, it made my blood run cold.

First-hand accounts on either side of the process would be great, or even more formal analysis.

Just how brutal is it out there? How high has the bar been raised? What's the approximate chance of success applying for a typical position prior to COVID and now?