From where I sit, native applications still rule the day. Sure we spend more time in our browsers than anywhere else, but at least for me that was true back when Jacques still has the desktop war raging. IMO there is a good bit of web entrepreneur/HN hive mind selection bias here - I still go to Libre Office when I want to make documents, local dev tools for coding, local media players, local photo editors, etc. Sure, I can do a fair amount of that stuff "in the cloud" to varying degrees of effectiveness, but that doesn't come close to the last nail in the native application coffin. And I know a good number of people who even stick to desktop mail apps.

My point, I guess, is that I don't think the desktop war is dead - in fact there are a lot of decisions that go into how everyone picks their platform still today. So I don't really see that going away in mobile either - if nothing else on many platforms you can't even pick your browser. Also, much like on the desktop choosing one OS vs. another can really affect your security posture. In the coming years security is going to be a much bigger deal to a fast growing segment of the population.