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On the other hand, with stay-at-home orders media consumption is at an all-time high. Ads should outperform in this environment.

This assumes your conversion rate from media is the same. It's reasonable to hypothesize that most are significantly more reluctant to spend money in this environment.

Agreed; it depends on the product.

Engagement rates are way up, but conversion rates are down. Overall a net benefit in my line of business, but it's affecting other segments different ways.

With that same argument you can conclude that since 2020 is very atypical then it's not a good time to run the usual strategy of last year. Might as well switch it up, cut costs or react (in case they saw that ad clicks went up, but not the actual sales).

It doesn't matter. The test is "should we be spending money on this in 2020", not testing a hypothetical situation where the pandemic doesn't exist.