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Comment by throwaway1997 | Hacker News Reader

throwaway1997

It will disproportionately take away the more wealthy and better educated. The majority of HKers live in public housing, pay no tax and are unlikely to have the means to live in the UK since there will be no recourse to public funds.

This level of brain drain, as in the other mass migration events away from HK, could trigger the government to loosen their grip.

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> This level of brain drain, as in the other mass migration events away from HK, could trigger the government to loosen their grip.

I've heard that HK is no longer as important to China as it was 20 years ago. HK's contribution to China's GDP has declined in relative terms as the rest of China has developed. With regards to the brain drain I get the impression that there are plenty of people from the mainland that could fill the gap.

Our biggest advantage is that we are a trilingual society with a deep understanding of both western and Chinese culture. Although there are many people in the mainland who have studied abroad, the ability to understand the needs of Chinese and Western business is definitely not as pervasive. But I agree that HK isn't anywhere as near valuable to China, especially in terms of finance.

> biggest advantage

Plus the rule of law, I'd say. Well, historically.

That's only dubiously a net advantage, even historically, of HK for the PRC. It's instrumental in some of the business advantages, but it also contributes to it's big political liability for a national regime for which the law is a convenience, not a limitation.

Good point. I meant advantage for companies (or individuals) to base themselves there (rather than eg in China), not advantage in terms of benefit to China.

That's in GDP terms. But lots of money flow through Hong Kong. If HK was to fail and get disconnected, China will lose a significant portion of their exports. Hong Kong imported around $264bn of products from China. These are unlikely going to HK mainland but rather re-routed to other parts of the world.

It doesn't help that China is in bad terms with the U.S. and India. India is on track to become the third-world economy. China is gradually isolating itself from the rest of the world.

Just because HK couldn't facilitate it anymore doesn't mean the world will stop buying $260bn worth of goods and services. It would just be 'rerouted'.

Sure, just as New York is not as central to the American economy as it was in the 19th and early 20th century. It would still be a very heavy cost to lose it. A few percentage points of GDP might seem small on paper, and won’t be the end of the country, but it’s not something to scoff at.

> It will disproportionately take away the more wealthy and better educated.

Which for Hong Kong as the universe of analysis would be a travesty, but for China is probably not a significant consideration against removing that population as a source of unrest which can spread beyond HK.

There is no risk of a brain drain. There are plenty of well educated mainlanders who will be happy to take jobs in HK.

I mean there are even plenty of HKers who are happy to stay and make money under China.

There are but then HK won't be HK anymore and the thing that attracts mainlanders to HK won't be there anymore.

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