We don't have enough data points to determine if what you are saying is correct. I have also seen lots of BDFL projects smoke out.
Is the lesson that actual dictatorships only survive long term if 1) the dictator is a nice person and 2) they eventually get managed by an open democratic process?
I think you are actually describing the two clocks problem. Lots of BDFL projects have their own Cascade of Attention-Deficit issues, the project only goes in the direction the BDFL actually cares about.