To restore American leadership in semiconductor manufacturing
congress.gov
congress.gov
https://www.aip.org/fyi/federal-science-bill-tracker/116th/c...
- Authorizes funding for semiconductor R&D, including $3 billion for the National Science Foundation, $2 billion for the Department of Energy, and $2 billion for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Electronics Resurgence Initiative
- Creates a multi-agency National Semiconductor Technology Center that would conduct research and prototyping of advanced semiconductors in partnership with the private sector, with a recommended budget of $3 billion over ten years
- Establishes an Advanced Packaging National Manufacturing Institute under the Department of Commerce with a recommended budget of $5 billion over five years and creates a semiconductor program at National Institute of Standards and Technology that would support a new Manufacturing USA institute
- Creates a $10 billion trust fund to match state and local incentives for investments in semiconductor manufacturing facilities
- Provides tax credits for qualified semiconductor equipment or manufacturing facility expenditures through 2027
300M/year is not going to dig us out of this hole. Intel's R&D budget is 10 times that per quarter [1], and that apparently doesn't even get you #1 in process leadership. In my opinion, the real problem is that semiconductors is no longer an attractive field for the best and brightest Americans. They realized they can go into software engineering and, as a new grad, make more as a BS than a semiconductor PhD. Unfortunately, national security doesn't dictate market wages, so I expect the U.S. to fall further behind unless they find a way to lower software wages, which perhaps ironically they're doing the opposite of with the H1B freeze.
[1] https://www.intc.com/investor-relations/investor-education-a...
So the total amount of this bill would be enough to build a new fab (in theory, not in practice). Still, I think you're right that, short of nationalizing US fabs and building a new one outright, this isn't going to bring the US back on par with other countries.
Good observation. I wonder if this bill should simply allocate all of its funding to supplementing the PhD education and salaries of US semiconductor engineers. Increase their compensation to more competitive levels vs software engineer wages. The bill might actually make some impact that way.
Companies like AAPL and AMZN have shown multiple times, they are willing to invest past the barriers to entry to improve vertical integration, reduce their bottom line, but also give back some of those wins to their customers. Both of these companies are leaders in custom silicon, and it is only a matter of time before they prioritize the move into silicon fabrication as well.
Best case would be if, once mature, these companies would spin out subsidiaries which design generalized chips and fab chips for the entire industry. But if there is a push for regulation to have less vertical integration because of the enormous competitive advantages, its not clear where that line should be drawn for creating subsidiaries. It'll be interesting to know if their decisions to invest into things like semiconductor manufacturing will be impacted by regulation and which is the less bad choice accounting for the economy and national defense.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13915/amd-amends-agreement-wi...
Where you have deep voodoo are some of the MEMS and analog manufacturing processes (e.g. ADI). Those aren't necessarily small feature sizes, but they are hyper-advanced. It take massive R&D to replicate them. But they're not large volume either. A few years back, I think car airbags might have been the biggest application.
The better question: who is building a next Fab. Samsung will expand Intel could TSMC will
Someone, somewhere, will restart Sematech as a research facility. I would bet on either Austin or Ann Arbor.
Even if they lift the ban, its not like these experts will immediately abandon their families and jobs to jump into the uncertain administrative environment of the US.
Why would they come if their lives can be upended by the stroke of a pen?
The modern Chinese supply chain can only be replicated in few other places in the world.
I don't see what the problem is to let China do what it does, and focus everybody else's goal on other more important things - like reducing global C02 emissions.
You could generate millions of jobs just by doing that.
The creation of the National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and Advanced Research Project Agencies undoubtedly had a profound impact on the direction of both the US economy and the rate of scientific progress during the mid-late 20th century.
> I don't see what the problem is to let China do what it does, and focus everybody else's goal on other more important things - like reducing global C02 emissions... You could generate millions of jobs just by doing that.
What makes these mutually exclusive?
You like their High Speed Rail network? Oh that was a political decree when nobody in its population could even afford to ride a high speed train.
You like their science? That's a political decree as well.
Granted, most of the current electrical production comes from coal I think. At least until they can phase that out for natural gas, solar, and nuclear.
And 10 years ago, the western media was a laughing at China, and declaring that their high speed rail network was a commercial failure, because most Chinese people couldn’t afford the expensive train tickets.
But then, fast forward to today, and their high speed trains are running at maximum capacity. At least before the virus. They cannot run anymore trains, because of clearance requirements, so they are building newer dedicated tracks.
The median Chinese person’s income had increased in the past few years, that more of them can afford the travel and vacations, and can pay for a high speed rail ticket.
And the interesting thing, is that the newer dedicated tracks will run on the even faster maglev technology, that they indigenously developed, which can run almost as fast as an airplane.
This new maglev technology was not stolen from Japan or Germany, or gasp, the United States. Unless they have a time machine too, and stole it from future American technology. LOL.
The other interesting development is that they built a low speed maglev intracity rail to move people around. But this doesn’t get as much attention as the faster trains.
Pretty interesting developments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_road_netw...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aid_Highway_Act_of_195...
What, China became number one in manufacturing by accident? Was it possible that Deng Xiaoping, the supreme leader of a Communist one-party state, might have made a political decree or two? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping#Three_steps_to_e...
There were reports that suggested Mao wrote a letter to FDR or Truman, to combine American financial capital with Chinese labor. The Chinese would mass produce all the consumer goods needed by the western world.
Granted, a lot of the source of that American financial capital came from the illicit smuggling of opium into China, during the prior century.
But, the American side was too stuck on politics, that this wasn’t even a consideration. Then, the two got stalemated in the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Until Nixon finally relented, and changed directions for America.