Comment by troughway | Hacker News Reader

Comment by troughway | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

I don't agree with the "cure is worse than the disease".

Have a look at this - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus...

Suppose that we quarantine people for longer while a vaccine is found, and suppose this vaccine is fairly effective. Presently there are 120,000 deaths. Who knows what this number will rise to. This number is already with some quarantine measurements in place.

If a vaccine is not found, you're bound to have a catastrophe on your hands. So let's hope that one is found so that we can resume things in some "normal" way again.

Whether or not you quarantined, the economy would collapse because you would have a massive death toll and paranoia throughout the country. People would stop going out, they would stop spending money and they would hunker down regardless. Economic turmoil is a positive feedback loop. The coronavirus or the quarantine are just the triggers for it to begin. This cannot be overstated.

At least with a vaccine, you can get out of this by the skin of your teeth and reduce the over all deaths. So no, I don't think that quarantining to save lives is the "cure is worse than the disease" scenario. The economy would have collapsed regardless.

> Whether or not you quarantined, the economy would collapse because you would have a massive death toll and paranoia throughout the country.

Citation needed. Plenty of economies have dealt with mass death and gotten along fine. This particular threat is also largely centered on the elderly who are, in coldly economic viewpoints, drains on the economy rather than contributors.

I don't particularly think the quarantine was a mistake, but you have to acknowledge that it is a gamble. Betting policy on a miracle vaccine is a bad idea. They might not work, or they might be short lived. Turning the economy on and off with lifted and then reinstated lockdowns is a bad idea.

Which economies exactly are you referring to that have dealt with mass death and came out unscathed?

> Betting policy on a miracle vaccine is a bad idea.

There are several promising vaccines that are already fairly far along in development. One of them (the Sinovac vaccine candidate) is going into Phase III trials as we speak.

Throwing away hundreds of thousands of lives when a vaccine might be available within months is just a terribly cold-hearted thing to do. Add to that the fact that many countries have now suppressed the epidemic and have partially reopened, and the US response to the pandemic makes even less sense.

According to that article, those vaccines are on track for next year, which I believe is a year too late.

>> Whether or not you quarantined, the economy would collapse because you would have a massive death toll and paranoia throughout the country.

Lol, what? 1/3rd of the covid deaths have been nursing-home patients. Covid basically doubles your odds of dying in a given year. So it'd be like 2 years worth of people died in 1 year (and importantly, mostly retired people), so no, not a societal collapse.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com