Ask HN: Would you play this game? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Would you play this game?

3 pointsdevchris107 comments

Every few days, you are given questions related to topics you are interested in.

For example: Politics => "who will win the 2020 US presidential election?"

Economics => "will the SP500 close above 3500 on July 31, 2020?"

Sports => "who will win the 2020 UEFA champions league finals?"

Etc.

The questions will be indisputably answerable after a certain date. Players can submit their predictions in varying forms such as "yes/no", "Trump", "Trump 30% / Biden 70%", etc. Predictions can be updated until a preset deadline.

Players can wager points and receive payout points for each question. Players will be ranked according to their predictive ability. Rewards will be given out every quarter to the best performers in each topic.

Anyone is welcome to play including casual news junkies, hardcore sports fans, and data modelers.

I believe this game can become a fun way to encourage accountability and transparency for predictions.

If players would be able to see how other players predicted, this would be similar to a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market, except that it might force all players to partake in all predictions (would it? If not, some players might choose to wait for the few almost sure bets to pass by)

Good points. Other players' predictions won't be revealed until deadline has passed. And the ranking system will take into account the number of predictions made.

It would be an interesting test of group intelligence as well.

Most people here probably would not believe mass will and focus alone can manifest things spontaneously, but an app like this would be pretty definitive on that front. It's also potentially a good hook to get people to try it, and might lend itself easily to gamification that isn't technically a prediction market.

isn't this prediction market? some did this using block chain and crypto currency.

https://predictioncoins.com/

https://www.augur.net/

https://www.predictious.com/

It is very similar to a prediction market. But ideally, the experience would be more casual and "contest-like" as opposed to focusing on trades and rewards.

Be advised that betting on elections in the US is illegal.

Thanks for the insight. I meant game points and rewards, not actual currency.

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