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Comment by cinquemb | Hacker News Reader

That's pretty cool, I wonder what your $/kwh would jump to with battery storage… probably a significant jump compared to 1.7 cents/kwh over the lifetime (esp consider degradation of electrochemical batteries over charging cycles)

SolarReserve bid under 5 cents/kwh in Chile in 2017 for a grid scale 24/7 CSP/molten salt storage system… we'd probably need a safer way to transport molten salt tanks from high Irradiance areas to local grids to give 5 cents/kwh for most people though.

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So 2 Powerwalls should cover me. That’s 27kWh but only 14kWac peak. It’s the peak that’s really the issue. If I’m running a furnace and my stove, it may go over.

But currently 2 PW is $17,000 with 10 year warranty. That’s $142/mo. If they work for 20 years, that’s half. Enphase is coming out with its own system.

Anyways, it already makes sense but for peak usage. I only use 15kWh max a night but my peak can be up to 20kWac for a few minutes at a time.

If battery makers can increase peak of home stationary batteries - Tesla cars peak much higher, like 400kW - and Tesla’s battery costs are under $100/kWh, the end is nigh for electric utilities. They need to start stringing fiber.

End is even closer if Tesla enables vehicle2grid soon.

You'll definitely have chemical degradation within those 10 years, but even assuming $71/month over 20 years + $0.017/kwh, that's still pretty expensive for an urban environment, though may work out for suburban and rural (I pay about 11-12c/kwh in my 2br apt in Jakarta), I still think there is still plenty of future opportunity for electric utilities (esp for industrial applications that will require peaks alot higher than residential).

I really don't see costs coming down that much in the next 10 years for electrochemical batteries.

Yes, utilities seemingly will be all industrial. Their poles in residential neighborhoods could be put to good use offering other high value services.

I wonder if Tesla should buy some of these large publicly traded utilities, like APS.

I expect with grid-tied and reasonable utility policies, you can reach zero and batteries would just be an added expense.

It's just when they start "regulatory capture", batteries can take you out of the drama.

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