The yuan has been one of the world’s most stable major currencies
economist.com
economist.com
As for the amount limit that's transferrable, this is only there to individuals to prevent capital flight (limited to $50,000 per annum), it's not limited to companies.
I remember the last time I tried to buy a flight ticket with Qatar Airways, one of the currencies they accepted was the yuan (kinda upset they didn't accept the sterling). This probably will challenge the US Dollar's role as the dominant currency, which is actually terrible for the US in its long term debt structuring.
Is there anything the US can do, or have we forever ceded the lead?
But the thing is, being the major dominant currency actually comes with drawbacks:
https://equitablegrowth.org/reserve-currency-privileges-cost...
So potentially, the US dollar losing its role as the dominant currency may actually come with benefits for everyday Americans.
It's all just really shitty to have to deal with when it's your own money. So yeah, not looking to "invest" in China until they allow the money to come out no questions asked.
Also, international payments are a pain in the first place. I'm based in London currently contracting for a Singaporean firm, and they've still yet to be able to make the payment due to IBAN, SWIFT code issues. And you'd think that London and Singapore both being global financial centers, it would be easy right?
But yeah, I take your point its really bad having too much restrictions on moving money out of China, although I do think they are trying to change those policies.
And before that, up until 200 years ago, it was the Spanish Dollar ("piece of eight"), which dominated South-American and Central-American trade and was informally accepted in Northern colonies too.
A monetary policy maker at the central bank and a supporter capital controls was ironically denied to exchange USD $20k a year ago when trying to visit an overseas relative. The reason for denial was cited as being over 65 years old and not providing sufficient documents. He didn’t exceed the US $50k limit. [1]
Earlier last year, China made it illegal to transfer for a profit of RMB 100k or with amount exceeding RMB 5M. This was considered as a measure to curb currency exchange among overseas friends and relatives. [2]
Since two years ago, Chinese banks were required to report transfer of at least RMB 50k or US $10k. Seven banks were fined for not keeping track of such transfers. [3]
Also two years ago, bank card withdrawal limits outside of China was reduced to RMB 100k. [4]
With all these additional restrictions, the amount that one can exchange for is way less than US $50k per year (or about RMB 350k at current exchange rate).
Possibly related: The People’s Bank of China just announced that depositing or withdrawing RMB 100k or more will require registration. [5]
[1] https://money.163.com/19/0529/12/EGBJMPI4002580S6.html (in simplified Chinese)
[2] https://www.auliving.com.au/zh-tw/201902/116872.html (in traditional Chinese)
[3] http://finance.sina.com/bg/economy/economy_forex/sinacn/2018... (in simplified Chinese)
[4] https://www.hk01.com/%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E5%BF%AB%E8%A8%8A/14... (in traditional Chinese)
[5] https://www.msn.com/zh-tw/news/world/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%9... (in traditional Chinese)
Instead of doing a lot of conversions, or using 3rd parties, Chinese industry will start to only receive yuan near in future because it is easier, faster and more secure to them.
We could also use exchange controls to arrest our capital flight which is just draining us.
The trajectory of the current South African de facto Kleptocratic ruling party should worry anyone.
One might argue the currency fluctuations are the result of endemic policy failure in every aspect of the South Africa governance. A result of a ransacked economy, stolen in the guise of altruism by a corrupt ruling cabal.
Closing the economy, removing the scrutiny of outside participants, will only seek to further assign it the moniker as yet another basket case economy
It worked in China only because the size of the country is such that it can basically do anything alone if it wants to, and the outlook was so "inevitably" good (again because of size) that investors were ready to risk it all.
Is SouthAfrica in that position? I doubt it. Imho a wave of capital restrictions in SA would trigger a Zimbabwe-like crisis, making it official that it's all gone to the dogs.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-franc-climbs-after-us-add... (why is the US treasury telling us what to do? We've attempted to adjust against EUR, so if you all don't like USD/CHF why don't you all work the USD lever instead?)
Belt and Road Initiative implies construction (labor/resource deployment) to solidify economic connections between regions/hemispheres where there are various career specializations and resource concentrations. "Currency" implies "current" (immediate) access to these things, therefore leverage to wield as enabled by inevitable research breakthroughs?
Meanwhile in the US, oddly enough from both sides of the political spectrum you have people toying with the idea of devaluing the dollar (predominantly Warren on the left and Trump on the right), which would weaken the international position of the US and of course effectively make American consumers poorer.
Not unrelated China has also made the DCEP (sort of a digital RMB) a national priority, probably with the same goals in mind
https://www.ft.com/content/f10e94cc-4d74-11ea-95a0-43d18ec71...
Devaluing the dollar makes exports more competitive (cheaper), which is appealing to leaders.
Also, it devalues China's US holdings, so bonus.
(The Chinese hate that the US can do that, and released a short film explaining how that works, and warning the USA not to do it. The film used to run on Chinese airlines. High-quality film.)
Also, a weaker dollar would be better for young people in the US. Making exports expensive and imports cheap doesn't help an economy grow over the long run* (see JPY), it only benefits those who already have lots of USD. So depending upon the generational balance of power within the US, a weaker dollar might also serve domestic policy.
* for short term goals (like M&A of the DDR) a strong currency can be beneficial.
In 2019, 52% of Russia's exports were oil/fuel, and 96% for Venezuela.
Gotta wonder what their leaders do all day, besides crank the spigot.
The problem that the USA has with Iran is that they don't want a theocracy with a nuclear bomb, yet Iran ia a regional industrial power, unlike other Middle Eastern countries.
I don't think the fact that it's a theocracy plays any part in that or that it isn't democratic enough for that matter. The fact that it's a long standing enemy (admittedly partially of it's own making) and enemy to it's neighbouring allies tho....
It's laughable to suggest religion plays no part in Middle East affairs. Funniest thing I've read all week, actually. :)
https://www.google.com/search?q=usd+to+yuan, click "Max"
> What does that really mean? Is it stable for those who hold it in China where the amount you can legally transfer overseas is limited and that limit has been both going down and much more effectively enforced in recent years?
Literally the entire point of the article is talking about this.
> Well, sure, when you manipulate the forex market, you can act to alter the value of your own currency.
That's not the only method described, though it's powerful. Article describes the rest - which are very interesting.
> The Bank of China pegs the yuan to the US Dollar afaik...
Better information in the article.
> The Yuan is pegged to the US Dollar
Better information in the article.
The posted article is behind a paywall. What did you expect?
The downside is that longer articles may be penalised because of people taking more time to read them before voting/commenting.