Why are there so many humans?
sapiens.org
sapiens.org
Gotta wonder if the women thought that was progress, or not.
Most people in antiquity saw children as a blessing. The more children you had, the larger your bloodline would be. In fact, being unable to have children was a point of shame for a woman. It wasn’t until the rise of the modern era in the west that people started wanting small families or no children at all.
You can still see this idea of children as a blessing present in some communities that haven’t been westernized, e.g. some Mohawk communities in Canada.
A very different situation than pondering one's bloodline.
2003 is antiquity?
It's not like women don't tend to love children...
I guess I'm struggling to see what's novel about this. It seems awfully well-established that as food supply goes up because of better technology, populations explode (e.g. twentieth-century Africa) like happens with literally any species anywhere.
Perhaps these facts are not novel? I'm not sure how much of this is generally understood. Personally it seemed an interesting read. My education consisted of listing eras of human evolution (hunter gatherer, farmer, stone age etc), without much info on what human society looked like in the hunter gatherer stage. So this was novel to me at least.
Is it? I think there are a lot of social systems that are being tested at the moment, some are failing. There are many developed countries that are improving their cooperation in the current crisis - I'm in one - Australia, there are others that have seemed to come together, and others that have failed abysmally. No doubt the ones that have had trouble will examine and regroup, maybe some won't. I can imagine if you're in a country with a thousand deaths a day, things don't look good.
* Brisbane's "Boundary St" still exists, name unchanged [0].
* Story from less than 1 hour ago: 4 month-old baby of indigenous women dies while mother is in police custody [1].
* PM calls Australian BLM protests "completely unacceptable"[2], urges people not to attend[3], while "think[ing] to [himself] how wonderful a country Australia is" [4].
* The mounting spread of COVID-19 conspiracies, including the "Wake Up Australia" campaign [5].
* Australia participating in spying on its citizens [6], passing anti-encryption laws [7].
[0] https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/calls-for-brisba...
[1] https://www.news.com.au/national/northern-territory/fourmont...
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/black-lives-matter-pr...
[3] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-05/pm-tells-people-not-t...
[4] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/quoting-a-meme-scott-morrison-sa...
[5] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-12/asio-briefing-warns-f...
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes
[7] https://www.wired.com/story/australia-encryption-law-global-...
Its great this conversation has started, like most I'm unaware of these problems, and its good to get them out in the air, if the fix is renaming a street - then who cares, rename the street.
This is an underrated point; I think your larger message, that cooperation isn't dying, is likely true. I think I have the tendency to focus on the problems that are growing (or continue to exist) without noticing areas where there is progress and my comment was a reflection of that. And I agree that it is good that we have started to have these conversations.
But I also think there is something to be said for the point the OP was making: human systems simply don't function as well at scale. Or stated more precisely: humans are better at being prosocial in smaller groups than they are in bigger groups. There are a lot of reasons why this might be the case (see for example [0], [1], [2], [3]). As we scale our society to be more and more global, I think we are going to need to reckon with this at some point.
[0] Not having enough interactions for tit-for-tat to function as a strategy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma#The_itera...)
[1] Inability of humans to hit the requirements for a sense of community in very large social networks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_of_community#Membership)
[2] Not having enough interaction between individuals to encourage reciprocity and cause feelings of guilt (or shame) when an individual is muddying the commons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons)
Maybe there is some limit where there's too many people for that to occur. I feel one of the necessary conditions is the population needs a cohesive belief system (at least in certain areas). For example, if you have a large population that doesn't believe in science but in the invisible hand of god, and a large population that is scientific humanist then I don't think any system will cope with that - there is very little common ground. If everyone is educated and believes in a rational universe then it makes things a lot easier.
You're obviously referring to the US during the pandemic of 1968-1969, which - as everyone knows - ended the United States forever, because things were so bad in tandem with the severe civil chaos occurring at the time (which was worse than anything going on now in multiple ways). The US never recovered; its superpower status, its wealth and power all vanished from there. Oh wait, that didn't happen at all.
I'm in the US, the future looks great, if you can see beyond the tip of your nose. Historically the US always improves thanks to the types of challenges that are going on now, rather than getting worse. In my short lifetime I've lived through several occasions of: 'things are so bad, this is the end of the US' type over-drama (which is farcical).
The US is radically more resilient than people outside of the US will ever understand. It's why the never-ending expectations of our national demise and erosion, going all the way back to our formation, have always turned out so embarrassingly wrong. They're wrong now as well.
What surprises me is observing the foreign/outside estimation of what it takes to essentially break a nation. I'm surprised the rest of the world is so fragile, they're mentally projecting their own low breaking points onto the US in the criticism.
> It's why the never-ending expectations of our national demise and erosion, going all the way back to our formation, have always turned out so embarrassingly wrong. They're wrong now as well.
History has shown us that nearly every civilization that flourished and prospered also managed to vanish over a really short period of time. Societies are a lot more fragile than you would believe. American success is not based on some jingoistic manifest destiny; it is a country that has managed to get its fundamentals right. However, even the best prepared civilization can collapse in short order; its happened before, and there is no reason to believe it won't happen again.
There seems to be a reversal of this - science is actively disregarded by a large part of the population, education is not respected, a large and growing part of the population is disenfranchised and so on. These are not good portents imho.
As much as people have cried wolf over the last decade plus (maybe more, I don't recall) about whether there would be normal elections, I feel like now we have a discrete point in time where the (un)willingness of the volunteer military to do unconstitutional things is all that remains; the people and other institutions are no longer in control of our fate.
You can say, oh, we're fine, the military still has integrity. But it's a volunteer military that's become a distinct class; if they're the only bulwark, then we're very close to a military dictatorship. At best, it could be like in certain countries where they serve as a check on bad civilian governance.
So, I can still hope/think that this President as dictator is alarmism, but I can't say that if it is crying wolf, it is making me more confident the US will go on and on. He can end his term as an ineffectual wanna-be despot, but he's probing and outlining the weak points - how someone smarter and more respected and sympathetic can deal the final blow to the system. Someone said that history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
What recent events make me think of is the point Richard Feynman made about the O-rings in the Challenger investigation:
"To paraphrase Feynman's example, if engineers built a bridge that could bear 3,000 pounds without any damage, even though it was never expected to bear more than 1,000 pounds in practice, the safety factor would be 3. If a 1,000-pound truck drove across the bridge and a crack appeared in a beam, even just a third of the way through a beam, the safety factor is now zero: The bridge is defective, there was no safety factor at all even though the bridge did not actually collapse."
So yes, people were saying the same things in the 1970s. And they were wrong. But things always seem worse for good reason, and eventually, some day, things do fundamentally change. When things crack, but don't break completely, it is not necessarily a sign everything is fine.
Covid doesn't seem in itself like an existential threat to the US in particular, but any time it seems like people are denying reality that worries me, honestly scares me, and certainly it's been over a month that global daily cases are reaching new heights, while financial markets and the media seem detached and focused on reopening. Maybe we need to stay the course; maybe Mnuchin and many others are right that there's no going back, but the sense that people are imposing their wishes on reality, as though it is reality which will be forced to bend, feels like a bad premonition to me. I hate the idea of daring fate, of putting the all-powerful to the test.
This was incredibly clear during the Obama Administration. Not sure what kind of inane cultural wars will consume the next one.
Long term accumulating issues that become unrecoverable past a tipping point could be a source of extinction (e.g. extreme worst case climate change). Here, yes, exponential growth could hasten extinction in a world where people weren't trying to stop the catastrophe, but...
1. Empirically, we're not on an exponential curve or anything close to it. Many developed countries would be in population decline without immigration.
2. Generally, the best solution to problems of efficiency or long term threats is improved technology, not reducing population. In the concrete case of climate change, cutting emissions per capita by >50% is both achievable and clearly superior to the Thanos approach.
3. More people can produce a more interesting universe to live in. Imagine a solar system colonized with 10 trillion humans: provided we build the requisite efficient infrastructure to unfetter human creativity, we would have the capacity to produce over a thousand times as many isekai animes.
And I appreciate your optimism. Not sure if it's been done much, but more honest analysis - that isn't biased by human emotions like hope of survival - on the history of the natural world and all evolution across all organisms from the beginning until now, analysing which behaviours result in which outcomes in terms of species extinction and resources sustainability, would be appreciated. No one wants to hear bad news, but we have to take its possibility seriously.
The U.S. alone wastes about 141 trillion calories worth of food. It comes out to around 1250 calories per capita.
Feeding the world is a logistics problem right now, not a production problem. And we also have the space for all 7 billion humans with room to spare. I think right now, there's enough for everybody to have about 4 acres.
It's seems preferable to have a lower stable population where everyone has a very high standard of living and a low aggregate environmental impact.
A flat cap of two children per person would halt and slowly reduce the population without killing anyone or being unfair to specific groups.
Once we define the threshold of high standard of living, we can optimize for it. This is literally when we say "nearly nobody can live as opulent as this" and can condemn waste. Feel free to pick say 90th percentile or something.
If there was one thing that we could do to increase sustainability, it would be to Increase quality of life as fast as possible
The eugenics thing is doubtful; what exactly is the mechanism that ties eugenics to population controls? There are myriad ethical ways to control population. For example, just make all countries advanced and the people will choose to have fewer children, as is happening already now.
Granted, there's much more to sustaining humans than just food, but come on let's apply some engineering to the problem first before giving up.
There's another, better reference but it escapes me at the moment- something calculating that with various engineering techniques applied to the planet, 100 billion people shouldn't be an issue.
Edit: Wow has it been 15-17 years already? Good seeing you.
[1] Agricultural productivity in relation to population, 1963
For example
Humans can throw good.
Humans can run very long.
Humans won't usually kill each other when put together in great masses.
"Evidence-based debates around the origins of thrusting and throwing spear use in human evolution have typically focused on hominin skeletal evidence. Proposals that features of the upper limbs of different species of Homo indicate that throwing only comes into play with H. sapiens23,35 are hampered by multiple issues. These include small sample sizes, human variation in populations36, evidence that humeral robusticity and shape may not correlate with strains in weapon use37, and a lack of clarity whether any single activity contributes to or offsets bone remodeling or robusticity36,38,39. Others argue for an earlier emergence of throwing, showing that features necessary for accurate and powerful throwing are evidenced in H. erectus fossils40–42. A recent find of an early Neanderthal dating to MIS 7 from Tourville-la-Rivière shows skeletal trauma consistent with repeated throwing, supporting the hypothesis that they were capable and frequent throwers43."
And I seem to remember this in a display the Museum of Natural History in NY. Neanderthal using speers at close range, but not able to throw an atlatl or speer.
Sounds like people (and I) have been wrong!
Lead web dev: <examining logs> "We need to hijack the back button."
If we imagine the set of all genetic combinations that result in something that could be conceivably thought of as “human,” only an infinitesimal fraction of humans will ever be born through traditional sexual recombination. To be born is to win a lottery with astronomically long odds.
As biotechnology advances, we will be able to conceive and grow humans using completely artificial means (eg artificial wombs). Do we, the relatively tiny population of humans who have had the luck to be born, have a duty to the much more vast population of “genetically possible humans” to bring them into existence?
I think we do if we ever reach a post-scarcity society.
Three obvious problems: genetic mutations that would make a life unbearable, the phenomenon of twins, and the astronomical number of resulting humans.
I’m sure we’ll be able to identify extremely negative mutations and either fix them or abandon those genomes. The issue of twins means we’re not generating every possible human mind, but creating a reasonable sampling of that space (we observe twins have very similar life outcomes). To the last problem, I have no solution, I’m just assuming the Universe is spatially infinite with an even distribution of matter and energy.
BTW, it might be simpler to just simulate these humans, but I’m still extremely uncertain as to what extent a human in a computer = a human in meat-space.
That's a philosophy, not a fact. Individuals and organizations define things by all sorts of criteria. eg temporally, consensus and differentiation are just a few. It's not as simple as "we all agree this zebra is a human".
So is a pig that started with human genes, still human? Of course not. What about a human that started from pig genes? Hm.
That's what I mean, by being defined by existing humans. Because that's all we really have to go by.
You add wings to a person, lots of folks would be happy to call it a new kind of being. Some would argue its non-human. The proposal is to add disease resistance or other blood factors or cellular machinery, which are invisible and not obvious. But isn't it similar to adding wings?
"All humans that are possible" has to include the pig-human, and the winged-human, and so on. Clear to me, they are non-human.
Why are people so hung up on definition of human rather than more critical things we don't understand, such as consciousness and intelligence?
Perhaps they're afraid to be put in the non-human box, and non-human is to be removed or exploited? (Also, inhumane. For once properly built word.)
History has shown repeatedly narrow definitions of humanity in action. It ends in a bloodbath of some kind.
It's like you've backed into the concept of a soul and decided a string of nucelotides was it.
will the resulting eugenics wars [0] be simulated [1] as well?
That would have to be a very careful choice. Otherwise, sound the Godwin.
See, to maximize uniqueness you would institute crazy eugenic policies to combat sexual selection, random culling (literally euthanized at random) in addition to randomizing wealth and power. (Sortition.) Conceivably this would result in a somewhat unstable society, but perhaps workable.
Fun sci-fi setting.
Might make for a good scifi story.
You need a catchy slogan, like “enumerate all humans!”
I feel like this concept hinges upon the assumption that genetics determine a person, which is not true. In my opinion, it's more important to raise people in all kinds of environments than to have every genetic individual in existence. Two genetically different individuals raised in an identical situation would likely behave similarly.
We? Who's we?
And what do you mean by "extremely negative mutations"? Who are the curators of humanity who gets to decide that?
What if the engineered people you consider to be "extremely neagtive" don't want to be "fixed"?
Nope.
Not even a little.
Why would you think we would? Is one of the possibilities Hitler with laser eyes? I would argue that we have a responsibility to PREVENT that particular person from being brought into existence.