Dmitry Rogozin on SpaceX Crew Dragon Launch
en.roscosmos.ru
en.roscosmos.ru
Humanity needs a way to access space and we can't rely on the relics of old Soviet technology for that (no matter how great it was, we are rapidly losing the knowledge of it).
However you are not wrong.
I think that's a very very good thing for all the atrocities that Soviet Russia committed on it's populace and especially the populace of the various Republics.
There's a lot of bitching and moaning in certain Russian circles about how the space program is falling behind and OMG Space-X launched a crewed vehicle, we're all doomed kind of thing.
The reality is that of course Space-X is standing on the shoulders of giants (NASA and US Treasury) and that the Russian space industry, like the rest of the country has had a tough 25 years. I was living in Russia in the early 90s and those were dark times. Space was not a priority then and it is not really a priority now although some progress is being made. As an example: a lot of critical industry and launch facilities literally ended up in different countries overnight.
Also Roscosmos is a government controlled structure and well... there's a reason why NASA had to turn to a private company to get things done. ;)
Now he's probably getting a kick from upstairs and feels he has to write up something like this and genuinely feels like some of the criticism from the peanut gallery is unfair. In the end though, as an outsider now, it looks to me like they are doing a reasonable job all things considering.
I agree with this for sure. Yeah, what SpaceX and, to a lesser extent, Boeing, are doing is cool, but there's something to be said for being the "old faithful" of the launch industry. No one else can really hold a candle to the flight heritage of Roscosmos' rockets and crew vehicles. Sure, they haven't fundamentally changed in a long time and aren't new and shiny like Falcon, but they've been flying for forever and are reliable.
" Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine but was unable to, although it leaped with all its strength. As it went away, the fox remarked 'Oh, you aren't even ripe yet! I don't need any sour grapes.'"[a]
People who speak disparagingly of the accomplishments of others would do well to apply this story to themselves.
--
Russia and America don't exactly get along, and I can't remember the last time I read anything where Russians employed by the state had something nice to say about the US.
I doubt he didn’t see it coming, and sees competition where he had a monopoly for some years and naturally is upset by it. But airing it out in an unprofessional way...
I'm trying to think of a less demeaning adjective, but the most fitting that comes to mind is "butt-hurt".
Before now, and I could be very wrong, the only way to simply buy yourself a seat to orbit was on Russian rockets.... and should the future bring more of this they were probably hoping to be the obvious choice. NASA, even when it had it's own capacity, wasn't a threat since they weren't selling seats and when they failed to have a crew capacity, NASA became a customer.
Now, you have the crew capacity in a private company that is on the verge of being able to offer these services for sale and they have no reason to limit themselves to just NASA. SpaceX owns the rockets, capsules, and know-how... which gets to another point in the press release. The larger differentiator between SpaceX and previous government contractors like Boeing isn't that they aren't both private companies, but that the SpaceX is basically selling a service whereas Boeing was selling bespoke equipment. If Russia wants to be commercially competitive in the service of launching cargo and people... SpaceX seems to be a credible threat and I read the press release as the Russians seeing them as such. Given how competitive SpaceX is for satellite launch services, I can't say I blame the Russians for having concern.
>Our Soyuz MS has proven to be the world’s most reliable spacecraft. We have a unique record of 173 successful flights. Even the three emergencies caused by the carrier rocket failures in 1975, 1983 and 2018 occurring during various injection stages showed its unique survivability due to the launch escape system reliability. By the way, the Soyuz rocket of various configurations has performed over 1,900 launches. And this statistics is the golden trademark. The US engineers have yet to earn this reputation. I sincerely wish them luck.
If SpaceX to launch 5 launches per year it would take 35 years to prove same kind of reliability.
I don't agree with ideas of the article :) but Soyuz spacecraft did fly quite a lot of flights. More than Shuttle already, and counting.
I mean, sure, but they've done nine this year so far already, and have plans to launch upwards of 30 by the end.
Russia is gonna put heavy emphasis on the long history of the Soyuz family. SpaceX is gonna point out things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_MS-09#Air_leak ("A 2 mm hole in the orbital module was discovered, later stated to have been 'hidden with a low-quality patch job.'") and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_MS-10 ("aborted shortly after launch on 11 October 2018 due to a failure of the Soyuz-FG launch vehicle boosters") as a counterpoint.
Ultimately, Russia can comfortably say "we're pretty good at doing rocket launches". SpaceX is getting there themselves.
The current Russian development projects Rogozin describes could flip that back -- but a lot of the speech is how those have, to this point, been moving awfully slowly...
Imagine Mr. Trump writing such a statement. What words/style would you see there?
[0] https://leonardo.osnova.io/7764cddc-938a-b05f-ca43-b131fcbcd...
Comparing Russia to the USA is like comparing potatoes to oranges. One is a child of royalty, chasing their dreams and living the in the lap of luxury while the other is a child of poverty, struggling for most of their life, a fleeting moment of success before their past catches up to them.
If you’re not sure, ask poor Americans, ask a homeless person, ask a recent immigrant.
Because they are mostly token sanctions, to raise awareness - "you're doing something which we don't agree with". Some sanctions are also more targeted - like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act, which is more troublesome for it's targets, at least judging by their reaction.
I’m still trying to find evidence of this event ever happening.
I think history has its sense of irony - Musk started building his rockets as result of Russian refusal to sell rockets (i think it was about decommissioned ICBMs) to him 20 years ago. In alternative Universe by selling to him Russia would have probably slowed down SpaceX may be by 10 years or may be SpaceX wouldn't have even survived in such a case.
hahahahahahhaha say what you want, but I love the unfiltered nature of Russian culture.
Anyway, Rogozin bad manager with huge salary overexploiting Soviet tech, including lots of which created by Ukrainians at Yuzhmash and Yuzhnoye Design Office. Paying 500-700$/month to a professional engineer(based on region, mec. eng, electrical engineering, programmers) is outrageous.
Cost for a seat on Soyuz is $90MM, cost for a seat on Dragon is $55MM. These are the market rates, not the true cost. In that whole paragraph he's basically saying that the true cost of the seat on the Soyuz is still cheaper than the true cost of the seat on the Dragon. Is there any data to substantiate that? I suppose we'll see in the coming months and years if they actually reduce their asking price.
ULA is a private rocket company, yes, and successful, but they don't yet have a successful crewed spacecraft.
SpaceX is a bigger author of its manned spacecraft than any private company ever was.
Is this true? The launch mass of a Soyuz capsule is about 7000kg and the SpaceX Crew Dragon Demo-1 launch mass was about 12000kg so not "more than double" however Demo-1 didn't include astronauts. The Crew Dragon can theoretically carry several tonnes of cargo to the ISS in addition to 4 astronauts.
Not that such use would be particularly bad - from a point of view of standartization of launchers, for example, or taking into account that F-9 has a reuseable first stage, it makes more sense. However by payload mass the Soyuz looks more optimal.
(I'm kind of glad that it doesn't carry 7, the more people that are on a flight, the more casualties you get if there is a failure).
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2b/Sk...
This means that Russia will fade away as a space-power, replaced by China, which is quickly catching up with the West.
All Russia can do now is bragging and brawling about its successes and drawing up an endless number of plans which will never be realized
Although ultimately there is no mystery here.
The Soviets had a real commitment to science and technology. It was one of the few silver linings of the communist regime. Present day Russia is devoid of that commitment. You can say that lack of funding is the problem (and there is that), but even more troublesome is the apparent lack of leadership. There are no driven, fanatical figures out there trying to set up a vision for the industry. Absent drive from the top, the industry is at best in maintenance mode, trying to keep Soviet heritage pieces flying.
Case in point, Roscosmos hasn't had a space engineer for a director since the early 2000s. Rogozin is a career politician, educated as a journalist. Before Rogozin, Roscosmos was ran by an automaker named Igor Komarov who came from Avtovaz. Before Komarov, there was a string of Army Generals during the 2000s (Gen. Nikolai Ostapenko, Vladimir Popovkin, Anatoly Perminov). Car manufacturers and ICBM generals are not the people who will lobby the political leadership for a basic space program.
Oh well. Whether things will change, I dunno. I think before they do, there has to be a realization at the top that education and science are important. Right now they are playing third fiddle to guns and butter, and all we get are Rogozins whose solution to everything is to put lipstick on a pig.
What? Is something lost in translation here? Interesting, Russian idiom perhaps?
Otherwise it’s ridiculous knowing that Russia is double the size of the US in area and China India are four times larger in population...
Sadly, it's quite typical. The most atrocious example of this mentality is (still, after so many years) US propagandist efforts to make everyone believe, that their participation in the WWII was decisive, with D-Day being the turning point, that ultimately brought the victory over Nazis. When someone dares to notice, that there were Kursk and Stalingrad in 1943 and a full-on race to Berlin quite some time before the first American troops even landed on Omaha beach, the official propaganda dismisses all evidence or smears the Russian side: like, yeah, sure, they helped a lot, no shit, but it was only possible, because Red Army was overrunning German tanks with millions of vodka-infused unarmed savages, who were machinegunned in the back by commissars, oh, and don't forget lend-lease and food, that US was providing to Russia, otherwise Hitler would have taken Leningrad in 1941...yadda-yadda
Adequate people tend to understand, that any such collective fight (conquering space is also a real fight) is collaborative, and every party plays an important role. Denigrating former allies after the fight is finished is behaving not like a human, but like an ape. It's equally disgusting to see this happen both on Russian and on American side.
1. Absolving themselves of any guilt or mistake. It's all Hitler's fault. :rolleyes:
2. The Russians only won because of luck, winter, and unlimited manpower.
Franz Halder ended up getting the second highest American civilian honor for writing that history. Of course, we asked him to do it because we wanted to learn what they know so we can be better prepared against the USSR. However, we were so naive and just believed him completely. There's been a recent movement among US historians to reexamine that period and a lot of old myths we had about the USSR' role in WWII is being rejected. It's going to take a while for that to trickle out into the public. I just wish more people knew of the immense sacrifices the people of the USSR made during that war.
More generally, please stop posting nationalistic flamebait to HN. You've unfortunately done that quite a bit, and it's not ok. I understand that being an immigrant from a country is a special case, more complex than simple prejudice, but the internet doesn't handle such nuances.
I have the following questions for you all if you have the time to answer them.
1. What should an official press release from an leading official of a country’s national space program read like? If you have one or more examples, then please do share.
2. Should this official press release make mention of the opinions of foreign space scientists / foreign space officials and address those opinions, or should this official press release make no mention of them?
3. If one of the long-term goals of space travel is to colonize another planet in order to avoid human extinction in the case of a catastrophic world war, then is not nationalism in human space flight antithetical to that goal? Quote from Elon Musk: “If there’s a third world war we want to make sure there’s enough of a seed of human civilisation somewhere else to bring it back and shorten the length of the dark ages” [4].
4. One of the shortcomings of Soyuz seems to basically come down to some form of “it is old”. Given that this forum is Hacker News and we routinely have posts about how some specific instances of old technology have no modern viable successors with similar track records, or old ideas being rediscovered in newer technology (e.g. language features that existed in Common Lisp for decades), why does the sentiment for Soyuz so differently with with that of old technology like older programming languages or older but still used chip designs?
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23478044
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23478215
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23478087
[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23478013
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/11/elon-musk...
> America is a very large country, and a large country should be benevolent and noble. However, some of my colleagues (not me, of course — I have no illusions about the partners after working as Russia’s representative to NATO) did not receive any words of gratitude or professional noble response, although they could fully count on that.
If that's not the kind of comment that discourages collaboration, I don't know what is. I mean it doesn't even make sense – what does a country's size have to do with "being noble"?
> In this connection, I note another strange moment seen in not only the ‘expert’ statements, but also coming from the side of NASA officials — such as Stephanie Schierholz, who have already started making wreaths to bury the Russian Soyuz spacecraft alive.
Stephanie Schierholz is Lead Spokesperson, Public Affairs Specialist for Human Spaceflight for NASA. I am trying to find evidence for this Soyuz wreath, or if it was a different event that was misunderstood.
Something along the lines of Apple's "Welcome IBM. Seriously" ads.
This boring and aggressive piece of Cold War rhetoric definitely fits into the recent trend of worsening international relationships (of course the current US administration has its own part in this). But it's still extremely disappointing, no matter which side.
> Dear @JimBridenstine , it's safe to congratulate you at this point with a successful launch and docking. Bravo! I know how anxious you were for this major event to become a success. I wish @NASA team to successfully finish up reconstructing its national space transportation system
Another member of Roscosmos, Sergei Krikalev, also congratulated the Crew Dragon mission here http://en.roscosmos.ru/21495/ along with a YouTube video https://youtu.be/gu6r46gJ2g0. Full quote below:
> I would like to greet our American colleagues – this launch marks the beginning of another test cycle of the crewed spacecraft. The vehicle has already flown uncrewed – but this is a very important and crucial moment with people flying aboard the new spacecraft, and a new stage in crewed flights program begins – including world crewed flights program and International Space Station program where the vehicle went to. This means new opportunities, new reserves – and I am sure that the success of the mission will provide us with additional opportunities that will benefit the whole international program.
1) Congratulate your fellow scientists for their achievement.
2) It can mention opinions from other scientists, but again, the tone should be at least a little bit less "us vs them".
3) Absolutely, which is why this article is so out of place, the author does even try to give a thumbs up to SpaceX for their work and just rambles about USA/NATO vs Russia.
4) Fair point, but no new developments and improvements mean that the price stays high. Reusable rockets mean that costs will go down and will become more accessible.
1) I posted links to the congratulatory tweets and press releases here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23479424 . For whatever reason, this press release was chosen to be submitted instead.
2) I posted what seemed to the response to an attack here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23479344 . I have not found evidence of the attack after I spent some time searching, so I do not know what event is being referenced.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/30/elon-musks-historic-spacex-mis...