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Comment by antibuddy | Hacker News Reader

Does nobody question the premise that Sars-Cov-19 is actually a big threat? At least the current incarnation seems rather tame. The panic over it however is rather real.

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I'll give you an honest answer, but well, it's obvious. Yes, it's a big threat, it's clear if you pay attention. It's killed more than 100k people, a lot more than an annual flue. It's a horrible death with many people not being able to be around their loved ones. There are lots more deaths not counted as covid-19, because they didn't get tested after death. If we look at total deaths vs normal years we are undercounting.

How many sr citizen homes do we need to wipe out 1/3 the population in a month or two before its a serious issue? Mortality rate in the us for people who have it tested via test is 5.7% - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.

Heinsberg study suggests a mortality rate of about 0.36%. This is high, but not "a big threat". Given that with 0.36% and 15% infection spread in the general population (like flu) you look at ca 162k deaths in the US.

It is not even close 5.7% mortality. If it would be that lethal you would look already at over one million deaths.

Sweden is a good example of a country without a lot of counter measures and we see that it will end in the realm of 0.36% lethality (5,4k deaths). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

Sweden regrets their choices https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

That's not exactly what the article is saying tho. Also it doesn't change the 0.36% mortality rate and I might add the high age median of around 80. So we will likely see a lower average mortality afterwards.

5.7% was probably referring to fatality rate.

It is extremely irresponsible to say this is not a big threat. At this rate, the death toll of Covid19 in the US is up to as big as 4 times the seasonal flu. In some countries the mortality will end up being more than 0.8%. Almost 1 in every 100 people dying because of a virus seems like a big threat to me, and it is already clear that this will be way bigger than the Swine Flu.

What would you qualify as a big threat?

I'd argue that a virus that can kill 500,000 (probably way more) people in a matter of months is a pretty big threat, and thats with most world economies shut down and actively trying to contain it. Imagining the damage that it could do without those containment strategies in place world wide, is why I'm convinced it is.

The flu kills way more than that and Corona will kill more than that.

You can see what happens without containment in Sweden. Given that countries with a bad health system probably need more measures.

The real difference is that we are informed broadly about the many deaths and this was not the case with the flu in our lifetime.

> The flu kills way more than that

The flu kills a lot of people over a long time, this is 500k in just a few months while everyone is actively trying to avoid spreading it. The flu definitely does not kill more than that.

Flu season is about 2-3 months usually and kills, depending on severity, 1-2 million people each year.

Flu season is NOT about 2-3 months usually.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

The exact timing and duration of flu seasons can vary, but influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May.

It also does NOT kill Millions of people per season

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone

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