The Top Ten Signs the Valley is on Tilt Again

paul.kedrosky.com

58 points·uberstart··7 comments

Although not directly related, here's some interesting reading from 1999:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/jan1999/int-j12.shtml

http://www.economist.com/node/183857

Sign #1: people write 'The Top Ten Signs the Valley is on Tilt Again' articles.

What bothers me is the lack of perspective. Obviously the Valley goes through cycles, and -- let's hope! -- we're on the uptick right now.

That doesn't mean we're in a bubble, and you shouldn't dread it. There's a big difference between an uptick and a bubble. A bubble -- a stock market bubble, mind you -- means irrationality all-around. If you think investments and hiring are irrational, please do some research on what was happening in 1999. Today's behavior is entirely sane.

Maybe we're in 1998.

I'd say we're in pre-2008 post 2003 again. Web2.0 (the conference) in 2007 had a ton of non-startuppy attendees. In fact, IIRC, there were a ton of similar "OMG BUBBLE!" articles at the time.

My thoughts exactly. People in 2003 were so spooked by the dom-com bust that people started reflexively yelling OMG BUBBLE! to any uptick in startup activity. Seems about the same now. Most of the startups I'm aware of have decent business plans and customer activity, in contrast to 1999. But it's easy to forget how frivolous 1999 startups were compared to now.

Yeah, I mean Groupon seems like a sham (3 years to $25 bil. valuation?!) but rumor has it they're going to pull in $1bn+ in rev which would only be 12-25x, a seemingly logical multiple.

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