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While your statement about the 11 most populous states is correct mathematically, it isn't politically. That group contains states that are quite politically diverse: from Georgia to California.

There is no way that a Presidential candidate would win those 11 and lose the other 39.

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Well exactly, so we get the concept of "swing states." For 2020, there's likely to really be just 5-6 of them. The fact remains a candidate has to focus on winning electoral votes, and candidates would campaign drastically differently if they had to win the popular vote.

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