From my experience, options for employees have NO VALUE at all. This is not because VCs and C-Suite don't think that the company will make it, but because they arrange things that way to maximize payouts for themselves.
Here is how this happens. Let's say for argument sake, there are 20 million shares or options floating about. Let's say you own 500k of them. Now Mega_Company and your company New_and_Cool announce a 20 million dollar purchase. You think your might be in for a $300k windfall (or more), but here is what is likely going to happen.
VCs will have a preferred stake that must be satisfied as part of any buyout. Usually this preferred stake will require satisfaction that is a significant multiple of the at risk position. The VC put up a million bucks but now requires the first ten million as part of any buyout.
Next, C-Suite will arrange direct compensation and retention packages outside of the context of common shares/options as part of the buyout. The CEO will get a five million dollar direct payout while the rest of the C-Suite and Board split an addition 5 million.
Then low and behold, your shares/options are worth... Nothing. Imagine that.
An equity position in New_and_Cool is snake oil and should be evaluated as such. Yes, I know there are counter examples and "so and so's secretary" is now living on a private island someplace thanks to their options. In my opinion, these gilded accounts only serve to make the gullible more susceptible.