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Comment by RcouF1uZ4gsC | Hacker News Reader

I expect in the near future, the urban rents in general will fall. Between COVID and rioting, living in a dense city just lost a lost of luster.

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You overestimate our cultural attention span :)

Anyway, even with COVID + Rioting, I'd much rather live in a big city than in the countryside.

why?

Amenities. Not having to drive everywhere. Good internet. Rural areas are more conservative in general (I'm talking about the cultural sense, not economic) so that can be stifling for a lot of people.

It happened once before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight

These people have figured out how to have their cake and eat it too. Major cities in the US have grown large enough that the ghettos can be reasonably far from the wealthier parts of town. That, plus racial profiling from both police and citizens, serves as an effective divide.

There's a major spectrum of lifestyles between big city and countryside.

Incidentally, I think this is the real harm of social media. I really believe our collective attention span is being decreased by infinite-scrolling feeds of content that demands nothing of the user other than clicking a little heart icon.

I don't know, these things tend to burn into your memory. Living in the sfbay I am moving out, things that drove me away are numerable. Covid-19, looting/excessive violence w/ riots, and before that a year earlier random power outages due to wind affecting millions (from pg&e), also out of control wildfires burning up large areas of the state. Combining that with the highest taxes in the US and both me and my wife in tech with great salaries but not being able to afford pennisula/sf area(owning a house) makes anywhere but here look amazing.

Long term, sure. But there's little point in paying $$$ for a tiny place when everything is closed due to Covid. Why not decamp for the suburbs/parent's house for a year and save 20-30k?

I didn't decamp to my parents house because they are in the age group that's at risk for COVID-19, and I'd rather not kill my parents than save some money.

I think this one's definitely happening.

The cost of renewing your lease and staying in the bay area vs simply moving out for the year to your parents' house / LCOL area where if it really comes down to it, you can simply break your lease much easier is an easy trade-off.

Time will tell if this turns into full-blown "white flight" like we saw in the 50's and 60's or is just a blip. With an aging population beginning to die off, I think you'll see more luxury homes open up in the sunbelt, which might also act as a draw.

I'm 45 and definitely considering my options for getting out of the Bay Area. Then again, I really, really do not like it here. If nothing else I'll be looking into taking advantage of cheaper rents to move up the peninsula and away from SJ.

People without kids aren't gonna move to the suburbs because of viruses/riots. Subrbian life is optimized for families.

Eh, friends in apartment buildings are looking to never live in one again it feels like. IDK how long that will stick. But yeah, they'd be looking to stay in the city, just somewhere with it's own door lol. But unless jobs start moving out too (or widespread remote work becomes both real and pleasant) I can't imagine a large urban exodus.

Anecdotal but as half of a DINK couple who recently relocated to an exurban vacation property, our main reasons for being in an expensive city (office, culture, social gathering) have evaporated and I'd be surprised if they came back the way they were for years. Speaking as someone whose main desire in life was to live in a big city, the suburbs are looking pretty nice right about now (as, again anecdotally, they are for a good number of our friends in similar positions).

> I'd be surprised if they came back the way they were for years.

Depends on what you're looking for. The police managed to find and shut down an underground club mid-April[0]. I'll bet the police didn't find the only one.

I'd be very surprised if it takes more than a year. Thinking back to the airline industry post 9/11, the airlines were strongly motivated to reopen the skies. The situation's different, but as we learn more about COVID-19, we get a better and better picture on what is necessary for it to be safe to reopen. The Hubei restaurant airflow study[1] says it's possible to be in the same room as an infected person and not get sick.

We shouldn't rush to reopen, but we can be more proactive than just "hope it goes away", by, eg expanding testing.

[0] https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Police-shut-down-S...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronaviru...

New York City specifically is no stranger to borderline apocalyptic scenes. All business trends cycle. The trend of profitable work being concentrated in megacities is not ending before this recession.

I'd think why would anyone not live in a dense city once life comes back? Suburbs are pretty boring.

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