Looks like people are really leaving the Bay Area. you don't see 10-15% price drops in a year without corresponding drop in demand.
Amongst my cohorts/closest friends I know in the Bay Area: - one moved to Colorado a year ago. - another moved to Berkeley from SF, to buy a house. - several moved to New York City and Seattle. - a few moved back to Canada.
In my time in the Bay Area, it always seemed like there was constant migration: some folks leaving, some folks just arriving. Usually more of the latter.
Due to the current pandemic, I'd definitely guess that the rate of folks leaving hasn't changed significantly (compounded with layoffs, etc.) but the rate of folks arriving certainly has! No interns are flying out, no recent grads are moving in.
If things "return to normal" then I'd expect this to revert, but those people aren't just milling about waiting for the gates to open. They're finding other opportunities, and when the dust settles, the opportunities in the Bay Area aren't going to be the highly competitive opportunities they once were.
I'm in NYC and we are strongly considering moving out when our lease expires in July. Google NYC isn't reopening at least through the end of the year so it doesn't make sense to continue paying a lot to live in a one bedroom apartment that is sub-optimal for multiple people to work from, especially while most of the typical amenities of city life are closed. The main reason I lived here was for a short commute and that's irrelevant now.
All three of us are sort of "just milling around waiting for the gates to open". Not literally, any of us could technically be in the city our workplace is in today (the border isn't closed to work related travel), but we are waiting to be required to show up in person at the office before we move (back). In the meantime we'd rather be here where we have lots of space, good company, no rent, and so on.
My rent was $4300. They're currently renting the same unit on a higher floor for $3500.
You should ask them to lower your rent to $3500. Then ask if you can move in upstairs.
It also depends on things such as how much money/time/effort the landlord want to put into "turning" an apartment, the number of corporate long-term rentals a complex has, what the landlord thinks is going to happen in the near future, and even what property management software the apartment complex runs.
Even if you move nearby, moving isn't free in either time or money.
And they'd follow up with a multi-thousand dollar bill for the remainder of your lease, plus fees, that is legally enforceable, and due immediately.
A lease is a contract. You don't get to just walk away.
In early March it appeared to be ~2%. Now I count over a 10% vacancy rate.
Definitely seems like a real drop in demand.
I suspect rents are going to fall further, too, because there are still a lot of vacancies. They're down maybe $200 on a $2000/mo 1BR, which is a lot in percentage terms but is still an awfully high rent when about 20% of units are vacant.
I'm actually looking for a new place in the Bay Area next month -- some units have their sticker price uncharacteristically low for sure; many have some kind of specials running too, like first month rent free. I asked a few leasing reps if this is due to the current situation and they invariably say these specials have always been in place off-and-on throughout the years, but perhaps that is just a convenient statement to convince prospective tenants that their "desirability" is quite inert to general market conditions?
My complex charges existing tenants greater than 5% more than new ones because they know that few people want to go through the pain of moving out. I haven been able to use the obviousness of this to keep negotiating the "new tenant" rate with them.
It is pretty insane, I don't see why anyone wouldn't move to a new place. The only thing that is making me think twice is that I'm in a rent controlled place right now and there's no way I would move to a non-rent controlled place.