As I understand it the big challenge is to replicate the chip manufacturing done by TSMC today. From what I have read mainland China is still years away from doing that.
They will likely
1. Close the gap at a faster rate
2. Make life difficult for Taiwan unless Taiwan relents
We’re probably entering into a rough patch of human history for a lot of people.
What is happening has probably made catching up one of their top priorities, and thus this will, ironically, shorten the time it will take for them to rise in that industry. That will also diminish Taiwan's strategic importance, which some might argue can increase the probability of forceful reunification.
[1] https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/huawei-banned-so-lets-invad...