This implies a rationality that I have not often seen in my professional life.
The places I have worked, HR has typically let the hiring manager decide if they want to promote an existing employee or start a new search. I don't expect remote work will change that much.
Given that, it comes down to the hiring manager and I wouldn't feel comfortable that they are this level of rational either. They may have some pre-existing opinions about remote workers and those opinions may not all be reasonable.
I think there's also reason for concern when a remote person has to "compete" with an in-office presence for the position. Qualifications and job performance aside, the person who is in the office every day, I suspect, has a real advantage here. I do think it is easier to form relationships in person, rather than over conference calls or Slack.