Salaries Get Chopped for Many Americans Who Manage to Keep Jobs
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Their entire evidence is bringing up that Lyft and The Container Store Group reduced salaries for the period. They didn't even say by how much.
Even if the labor statistics for the pandemic months isn't here, having your article backbone be "anecdotal data" from 2 companies, neither of whom hire that many people to begin with, makes all the conclusions extrapolated a little doubtful, even if they end up being true.
You may not know until there's later reports on net savings rate.
They say, in the second sentence: "The hard numbers won’t be in for months, but anecdotal evidence is piling up." Anecdotally, I've heard similar from friends and family, too.
Is there a single quote in the piece that you think COULD be inaccurate? I think it smartly distinguishes between what we know and don't know.
There’s few job opportunities now. Many of us hate the cut but do enjoy the stability of keeping our jobs.
Overall, I think tech will be bruised but not completely shattered like others. The economy is probably going to take years to recover.
This is to continue for sixty days minimum. This is in addition to those furloughed. Almost every contractor was released in April.
Company has a reserve but they have to step in now because the unknowns are still too high. They have been really open with the issues at hand, the company's ability to withstand such pressures, and ideas going forward.
Based on neighbors in my area, some are wholly unaffected, one has one day a week furlough which is effectively twenty percent but with benefits intact, a few are laid off completely or their spouse is. Pretty much I figure people are being tight with money even if unaffected because of the uncertainty and leadership at local, city, state, and federal levels, is all over the place; let alone those in the same using FUD to up their November chances
* we are in automotive parts distribution and a few other industries
* I of course do not ever speak for my employer
It's the knock-on effect that I'd worry about. We immediately cut all of our luxury spending, canceled our wine club subscriptions and gym memberships and started buying boxed wine and lifting weights in the garage again... we're not sure yet if we'll go back to those things when this is all over.
Unfortunately, that is probably the reasoning; despite the 'tech' part.
definitely have it better than many, but it's a frustrating situation.
My own employer cut exec salary by 10% but it terminated its retirement benefits across the board (~10% of base compensation contribution). There is also normally an annual merit/COL salary adjustment this time of year, but that was skipped across the board.
Both of us work at very large, successful non-profits (she in healthcare, I in education) that otherwise are well regarded as good employers. So this isn't just some pent up excuse for a greedy corp to cut a check for the shareholders and execs at the cost of the working stiffs.
I know you're asking for more than anecdotes, but this sure smells like a broad trend (and, to be honest, a reasonable strategy) to me.
Which, sure, is just another anecdotal data point, but...
Lots of people in sfbay and nyc structure their living situations around not spending lots of time at home. That has been upended.
My company is allowing people to become permanently remote, if they want. However, after covid, if you go full or mostly remote, it will be a hard requirement to have a dedicated room for an office. That is probably incompatible with living in most of the bay area.
Is this something they can actually verify?
But, if I wasn’t using my personal laptop as a Plex Server, I probably wouldn’t have a personal computer set up at home. My wife and I use our iPads for all of our limited personal computing needs. If I break down and get an a NVidia Sheild, I might completely shut down my personal computer.
Thus, I have an ancient laptop and the couch or the kitchen table to use in a pinch, but that's gonna cause injuries if used long-term. I've been adapting, as we all have, since going WFH, but I've had to buy things in order to make it comparable to my office, where I have dual 24" screens, and a setup that's comfortable to be at for extended periods.
Then there are things like (increased) electricity costs, having to upgrade your home internet to sufficiently satisfy your work requirements (eg if you need to be downloading or uploading large files, or your company had stringent remote call quality requirements), etc.
If you're someone whose commute was little or no expense, then these can be a notable new expenditures to budget around. They won't break the bank but they're worth thinking about.
"Snacks" can include whole meals and quality food which is both a monetary and time benefit. It won't move the needle, but it's another thing on the list.
I suspect companies will shake this out and factor it into compensation and reimbursement plans where relevant over the next few months, but it's fair to see it as a notable new set of expenses for some people.
In addition, our utility bills have risen about 50% as now we're at home for 8 hours more per day. Extra heat (and soon A/C), water, electricity, etc.
Also, my "play" room is now my work room. How much extra should I be paid for my work environment to be permanently visible at all times? It's starting to affect my psyche. Luckily I had a play room to begin with, so my bedroom didn't have to become my work room too. I would have even more trouble sleeping in that case.
I put an old IKEA table (nearly two decades old) on top of a regular table and that's pretty much the ideal height for me.
I use a MacBook Pro for work, and an Asus Predator laptop for personal stuff. They sit on the IKEA coffee table, which sits on a regular kitchen-style table. The height is perfect for my hands; the forearms are nearly horizontal when typing. The laptop screen is a bit low; if I had an extra screen, I would put that on top of a box on the IKEA table, but it's okay as it is.
Everything I need for work stays on the IKEA table all the time. I just swap laptops once a day.
There's a wall right behind me, which I can use as a back rest. Sometimes I put a knee and lower leg on the lower table, to give that leg some rest - it just happened to be the perfect height for that.
I can walk back and forth through the room when I'm in deep thought.
I have to say - I was surprised how comfortable the setup is. I am not tired at all from a physical standpoint at the end of the day. I actually prefer it now to the regular sitting posture.
When I'm done, I just move the IKEA table to its regular place. From a psychological standpoint, this is a nice benefit - it marks in an obvious way the moment when the work day is over.
As someone who has worked from home for years, more people and companies need to pay attention to this. It's very, very easy to stay glued to the computer all day, not get any movement, and get cabin fever, especially if you don't live with family.
It took me years of discipline before I could build the habits to make long-term work from home feasible. So many others I know - including in my family - struggle to separate work and personal lives when working from home.
I predict all these companies are going to find that their workers productivity and morale are crashing in six months.
Fixing remote worker loneliness and cabin fever is going to be one of the biggest - and most important - problems in the next few years.
2. Get some sunlight everyday. Even if its for 5 minutes.
3. Physically separate the work area from everything else. This might not be possible for everyone, but I have my office at the far end of the house. I use it only for work, nothing else. I even have a separate room with another computer for all personal work/games. Walking from the living area to the office creates a sort of "commute" which mentally switches you on/off for work.
As someone who lives within walking distance of my office and rarely buys new clothing, I'm in the negative just without free coffee alone, let alone other amenities and increased costs at home.
I'm not sure you're entitled to more money because you need a chair and a desk. Maybe could make an argument your internet connection should be paid for though.
Many contractors claim tax deductions based on their rent or mortgage due to the fact that a percentage their home is used for business.
Again, not an accountant, not your accountant, etc.
Note: this isn't actually my situation, but I'd be surprised if it was uncommon given that many programmers work in large cities.
The latter group was planning on working in an office and, perhaps, provisioned housing with that in mind. They may not have a guest room or space that can easily be used as an office. They may be sitting at a dining room table in an inflexible chair, bending their arms and wrist in uncomfortable ways and punishing their backs. They may have a laptop with a display that they planned to use only in meetings but now they are staring at it all day.
It's easy to make the case that people who made working from home a goal during their last search for employment don't need additional income during the quarantine; likely they made decisions about how they would pay for their homee office space and other expenses when they were looking for work and accepted a position.
I do think that employers should be footing some dollars to people working from home for the first time, for any real length of time, during quarantine. At the least they could provide equipment (docking stations, larger displays, keyboards, mice, proper chairs, etc.) to their employees. Whatever these employees are saving in terms of gas and commute time they are losing far more in the space from their home (no more dining room, etc.) and, if the quarantine continues for several months, the risk of RSI and back problems.
Why does this expense change categories to "eh, whatever" when it's coming out of my pocket instead of the business's?
(speaking from experience as someone who undercuts themselves a lot)
So let's talk about how it can be a valid argument, instead.
Employees expense computer equipment, cell phone bills, gas, car rentals, hotels, and more. I don't view this differently.
I'm working from my bedroom, we're already short on bedroom space; I'll gladly work from home for a fraction of what my employer pays to accommodate me in an office. But I probably wouldn't have taken this job knowing I'd be stuck in my bedroom 18 hours a day.
Very true. Most of us also aren’t paid for the value we produce. We get paid for the replacement cost.
Most firms will pay less for remote workers. It is a little odd given they save a decent amount of money, but most people save a lot of time by not having to commute and they like the flexibility so the rates for remote workers are lower.
Some were laid off "furloughed", and the rest had a 15% cut. I believe the story from the company which is mostly cold numbers of ensuring they have cash to handle the next couple of months of reduced sales.
If we were in the office, we wouldn't be any more upset or putting pressure on management. What I would normally do if I felt slighted is look for another job, but it's also a rough time for that.
A longer term trend of lower work-from-home wages might be a real thing, but I think it's way to early to separate that from direct financial reaction to an unprecedented economic downturn and uncertainty.
To suggest WFH is leading to wage cuts seems misleading, when it's a side effect of an pandemic and people forced to work from home.
The theory presented is that WFH reduced the downsides of cutting wages (by reducing the room for griping about it amongst co-workers), and that companies are following those incentives.
I am not convinced, but your dismissal doesn't seem to address the actual article.
The reason wages are being cut is because revenue has dropped through the floor, and companies have to make their books balance. This is not an incredible mystery.
The comparison to the 2008 financial crisis is not relevant; that was a financial crisis that affected availability of capital. The coronavirus is an operational crisis, so of course operations (which includes salaries) are more heavily affected.
She's still getting paid her full, normal salary. I'm not sure if the company owners are praying for a small-business relief hail mary fund, if they are going into debt with no plan to pay it back, if they are motivated entirely by wishful thinking, or if they don't want to let their employees down.
Whatever the case, it is both very generous of the owners, and very concerning.
The job market is horrific at the moment, unless you want to be doing gig delivery, or warehouse work. There, only the work conditions are horrific.
What wasn't plundered by friends, cronies, and the Fortune 500 was used up in a matter of days.
I have no idea if this business got a cent of PPP money. We certainly haven't heard about it - and I'd figure the employees would have been told if 'funding was secured'.
That small business bailout was a drop in a bucket. Is another one coming, or are just going to bail out big businesses, going forward?
Thankfully bonuses are still happening but I think that's because they were approved by the board before the new year. I doubt they'll exist next year.
Similarly bonuses were paid, but because they were reflective of 2019.
I'm wondering if all these mentions of pay cuts are going to be something I should worry about. It seems farfetched for my current company (we're still hiring and growing) but I worry they would try to follow industry trends... So, I wonder if we're in the same industry.
It feels like if the employer is even considering working remotely then they're more interested in cutting salaries too. Seems like if your employer has no interest in remote work and sees it as a purely temporary situation then there will likely be no salary cuts. Or am I wrong? (Presuming revenue is still okay)
Does the employee have to bear the brunt without any benefit?
And this company supplies a consortium of Industries, which include medical, commercial aero, as well as other Industries trying to automate their factories.
You have a strawman situation because it comes from the obvious side of the aisle who doesn't want UBI, but ignores the fact that with UBI would come a motley of other regulations against exactly this type of predatory capitalism that created the need for UBI in the first place.
Don't worry, if UBI gains steam; nobody will forget what caused it and corporate shareholders won't be able to wiggle themselves free.
For the record, to the extent to which I support UBI, I support my own net income decreasing to support others on it and I think any tax plan that does not involve some upper-middle class and middle class Americans paying more than they receive would be financially unviable.
If you are earning $2000 a month, and the company knows that you were earning $1000 a month from the government, and they cut your pay to $1000 a month, you’re still only getting $2000 a month. Your overall financial health, and way of life has not changed one bit. you have simply replaced one source of income with another. You’re still making $2000 a month, the only difference is, the corporation doesn’t have to pay you. We have simply replaced one source of income with another. You’re still making $2000 a month, the only difference is, the corporation doesn’t have to pay you. If a Toyota Camry cost $10,000, and all customers are getting $1000 a month free from the government, then raise the price of the Camry to $11,000. Services and goods have not decreased in price, and I contend they will increase, resulting in absolutely zero positive affect. So what if you don’t have to depend on that employer for that extra thousand dollars, you’re depending on the government now. Which is better, depending on the government, or the free market Services and goods have not decreased in price, and I contend they will increase, resulting in absolutely zero positive affect. So what if you don’t have to depend on that employer for that extra thousand dollars, you’re depending on the government now. Which is better, depending on the government, or the free market?
I often argue that the markets do not optimize for the right outcomes, thus not so great, but even I do not think they are that stupid nor inefficient.
If your standard of living has not improved (by your previous argument), why would the markets raise the price for the Toyota Camry? So they get less sales? Why would the workers agree to do the same work for less even if they are gettin extra money?
An UBI will definitely shift the markets and maybe not in a good way, but that analysis seems so absurd that I consider even calling it an oversimplification to be too generous.
This is why you can never tell a car dealer how much money you have to spend, because they are going to do everything they can to squeeze every last dime out of you. a UBI makes that WAY easier. Quick credit check, how much do you make, oh only $28k. You must be getting a UBI. Let's make sure we factor that into the price they will pay.
The only way a UBI works is everyone agrees not to screw people over, and that has never, ever, happened in the history of mankind. So why will it suddenly work for a UBI?
I oppose UBI but your arguments are poor refutation.
UBI is theoretical and depends a lot on good will and everyone being treated fairly and equal. When has that EVER happened?
(This is the "basic" part of UBI.)
For most employment, especially lower-paid, I would say there is a hassle factor, and if a job doesn't pay UBI plus hassle compensation, it won't seem like a good deal to keep that job.
The outsourcing is a big deal for exactly the point you list. In order to get someone with no need for income to survive to work an unpleasant job, you'll need to pay them a pretty good sum because otherwise they'll spend that time investing in themselves (or just not working). Improving labor relations for the poor is a nice idea, but all that newfound employee leverage is worth exactly nothing if the process is moved to another country.
With UBI, laborers - especially lower skilled laborers - are less incentivized to take any job just to survive, which can increase the cost of labor for the employers, and also increase the production of most consumer goods purchased with UBI - basics like diapers and cereal - which are not supply constrained, but demand constrained.
Even rents might not be increased if UBI allows people to support themselves better in less expensive, typically rural areas, thereby reducing demand somewhat on housing in more expensive areas. It could, coupled with targeted investment, even enable an economic rebirth of smaller towns by bringing purchasing power back to them.
Competition from other car-makers, which is precisely capitalism. Otherwise it would be illegal price collusion.
> Why not raise the rent $1000?
You can only do that if supply/demand in your area supports that, and that's often because of local restrictions on increasing housing (i.e. as seen in a variety of exclusive Bay Area hamlets).
With UBI, more people would be able to choose not to inhabit these supply-constrained housing markets, which might actually temper rents in those areas. If every place implements excessive supply constraints on housing, that would again be collusion - which is another issue that should be addressed simultaneously.
They could, until one of them try to out compete other by lowering price.
If all car companies suffer a derangement simultaneously and decides they are entitled to a larger share of my money, I, along with other consumers, will put off our purcase untill they've come to their sences. A few months of reduced sales willl get the message across.
With rents the situation is a bit more plausible, but car manufacturers have excess capacity, and there is no ' limited nunber of cars' in the world. If we needed to double their production, we would.
Because to me it looks like a serious misinterpretation of economics
Firstly most products are commodities and are priced based on cost of production. They are volume products in international markets, people will import grain from across the world if that's cheaper. Yoy can't raise prices on them just because you want to.
Goods like Macbooks are the minority, and most peope who buy macbooks arent on minimum wage and UBI will increase their incomes by like 5% big woop.
Pick up a book on economics and you will realise that economy is not that predictable and mechanistic, and that there are mutiple competing theories, and all ofbthem are ibconplete. So no matter what you believe ecobomically, you should be carefull rather than dogmatic about it.
No car company raises (or for that matter lowers) prices independently without considering what their competitors are doing. All of them raising their prices together in that context is collusion.
You say that like price collusion doesn't happen anyway.
https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2009/er0629gg1...
We already saw the Obama administration tax the shit out of underpriced Chinese tires to drive production and consumption of domestic brands. So some funny money gets injected into the market, and the first thing we see is American manufacturers taking advantage of the lack of competition by raising their own prices to absorb the delta in capital since cheaper alternatives no longer existed.
UBI does not work in a capitalist economy. Prices always adjust to the maximum people are able to pay, even (and especially) where it does not meet the statutory definition of "collusion." It's fucked by design.
Not really, since someone working no time or half-time still gets more money under that regime.
Possibly pedantic, definitely anecdotal, but I've always felt like the best time to buy a laptop or home appliances was right between Xmas and Tax season. For some reason it seemed like the sales just weren't as good during peak Rebate time...
UBI is a theoretical fantasy that hasn’t worked every time it’s tried.
I am sorry, but what is this peasantry? It is not his money to take. Where do you get this idea of economy of like a 16th century labourer in indentured servitude?
> UBI is a theoretical fantasy that hasn’t worked every time it’s tried.
Please present your sources, because the largest scale UBI experiment i am aware if was quitr succesfull. Planet Money even has an episode on it. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/09/22/552850245/epis...
The problem is that the increase in wages will necessitate higher prices to the point at which the UBI is not longer sufficient on its own, so the above mentioned effect falls off, and you find some sort of equilibrium at which poor people still need to work to survive.
It's not crazy to imagine the long term impact being what you suggest though. Right now you need, say $100 paychecks to survive. In a universal non basic income, you might only need to earn $50 + your UnBI. The cunning capitalist observes here that the poor need fewer wages to live and so they get... fewer wages.
You can probably see how this is a very different situation from something like Yang's proposal, where a person would get an extra $230/wk no matter what they did. That would be $670 to go to work or $230 if they don't.
You have to be careful not to look at a single side of the equation -- there are also savings that would happen as a result of UBI. Maybe you give someone $100 for free and it raises the price of everything by $5, but you don't have to pay $300 to replace a car window that is broken out when someone robs your car. And/or the costs of insurance/taxes goes down. Crime, poverty, poor health, etc have huge costs to everyone in the US, and you have to factor those things into the equation.
Planet money has an episode on the subject.
1. https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-basic-income-experim...
Listen to the panet money podcast, the experiment is much better conducted and the podcast goes into great depth discussing various effects on the participants.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/09/22/552850245/epis...
There is a lot more than succeded and failed to dicsuss here, happy to do so if you are interested in doing that rather than just proving your point.
I have no doubt that rents and costs would go up but they would go up by less than the full amount of the UBI so the UBI would still be helpful to the recipient.
It'll also never be a "basic" income in that the poor will always need to work to survive.
From another perspective, why doesn't food cost 90% of our income anymore? Why didn't food prices go up in perfect lockstep with every productivity improvement and rise in wages since 300BC? Because there are people out there willing and happy to sell it for less, no other reason.
Unemployment is nuanced because you're incentivized to not even try and probably not really that relevant to UBI fwiw.
Create money, put it into the economy at the bottom. Take it back out when it bubbles up to the top, and destroy it. Kind of like how your body creates red blood cells that bounce around transporting oxygen for about three months before breaking them down again.
There has been hardly any inflation in developed economies for the last thirty years. Japan and Germany have negative interest rates.
Yet the political wisdom of the day says that you can print money to bail out the banks, you can print money to inflate the stock market and yhats fine, but as soon as you try any kind of UBI\ help the poor, inflation will come for us all.
UBI is great, but if it's paid for by printing money instead of redistributing it, it will absolutely cause inflation.
Your employer is going to pay as little as the market will bear. UBI raises the minimum the market will bear for any given work (while simultaneously lowering the minimum wage necessary for any minimum level of income for an employed person) because of the declining marginal value of income. So, plausibly, it both increases wages for those who are and would otherwise be working and makes more people minimally employable (if the minimum wage is reduced to keep the minimum full-time income including UBI at the same level as pre-UBI.)
And honestly if a company feels the need to cut the salary of a $30k employee, please point them out so I can never shop there again.
Speculation incoming: I would think it'd matter to whatever incumbent power at the state level gets called out on it and has to answer to angry constituents wondering why their government allowed a local agency to effectively squat on usable Federal dollars.
takes off rose-tinted glasses, remembers he lives in Illinois Hey wait a minute
Although most of the time, what they mean by that is much worse.
Your federal government can print money, your province can't. It's much better for your province to have the same loan on the federal books, than it is on theirs.
It is a subsidy only in that it changes employee behavior. The article cites "getting misery out the door" as a reason for layoffs over pay cuts.
If the stimulus reduces misery, that incentive is eliminated.
And yet the economy is staggering and it's likely to get worse. Why? Because people have stopped doing things
We've built an entire economy around people doing things they don't really need to do. In and of itself, that's not so bad, but we've also built an economy with so little resilience, so much fragility, so little spare capacity that the mere fact of people stopping doing a bunch of stuff has the potential to cause complete economic disaster for, what 15-20M Americans?
This is utter insanity. It's like claiming that the only vehicle you need is an F1 race car because of course that's all you need: lean, fast, stripped down, powerful and ultimately focused on increasingly one thing. Meanwhile, it's totally obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes that it's a completely unsuitable design for anything except racing on a specially built course, and that the smallest thing is capable of destroying it.
We've built this insane economic system despite the blinding obviousness of calamities like pandemics, wars, storms, unrest, climate change and so on. The "system" will continue to function (very probably), but at what cost and to how many?
We basically locked people in their homes. Shut down every imaginable business except those deemed "essential". Closed all retail and restaurants.
What would you expect to happen?
If the stimulus bill had gone directly to that, then this might have made a lot more sense.
Forget UBI, the trillion dollars in PPP, if it was put into people's checking accounts as a reverse payroll tax might have had a very different (& aligned with consumerist values) economic result.
As in, take the "employee as a cost" out of the employer's books & turn every extra employee just extra hands to work at your business, just paid for by the negative taxes (this punishes the under-the-table payment tax dodges directly).
The fact that they gave PPP, without actually putting money into a paycheck absolutely sucked if your goal was to stop the money from slowing down in the economy.
A dollar I spend turns into many more dollars spent, than a dollar I saved.
But if I know I'm out on the street once that number drops to 0, I won't spend right now, even if it is a necessary purchase.
This isn't just about big business. Small businesses notoriously operate on very thin margins. Though that's not necessarily because of debt, but because what it takes to run a business today takes a considerable amount of overhead.
I know that the idea of saving money seems cliche, like some obsolete thing your grandpa might say, but we're going to have to wake up to the fact that if we want to finance everything with debt then we're going to be penalized every 10 years when there's an adjustment or a catastrophe that forces one.
The catch 22 there is that using less debt also means less growth, and we've all gotten used to unprecedented amounts of growth.
We really aren't. Between government pension plans, unemployment insurance, and all the welfare programs, I would challenge whether this is a real expectation at this point.
With the amount we pay in taxes, the ability to save is sharply limited.
Compared with, say, contributing to the construction of a resilient, humane society in a variety of ways (including paying taxes) and being ready to deal with semi-random catastrophes quite well.
Oh, also: the amount we pay in taxes, as a percentage of personal and corporate income, as well as GDP, is at a (near) historical and cross-country-comparative low.
When times are good, corporations are essentially making monthly payments to a bunch of local landlords (or banks) for the service of housing their employees.
I do find it a little strange that we didn't try to stick landlords and lenders with more of the bill. It'd be easier for corporations to keep employees staffed if they could reduce their salaries because their rent / mortgage payments were lower.
Now, it's true that the commercial (retail) real estate "sector" has created a more flexible and dynamic space for retail to operate in. Sign leases for just a year in case the idea doesn't work out etc. etc.
But it has also meant (1) a more encouraging environment for retail ideas that are even more likely to fail than the average (2) when business drops (e.g. covid-19), there's still the rent to pay.
It is true that in the past, the retail store owner-operator probably didn't own the premises outright, so there's still the mortgage payment when business drops. But that was (then) an arrangement with a bank (often local) who were going to be much more likely to see the mutual benefit of finding a way to not reposess the building.
This is just another small contributing factor to the overall fragility.
I mean...we just faced a complete black swan event where people all had to lock themselves in their homes, and so far we seem to have avoided catastrophe (at least by many expert predictions).
The US is extremely well positioned to avoid many of the negative effects that most countries are going to be seeing.
We are the opposite of fragile, at least compared to other human economies.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-0...
https://zoom.us/rec/play/uZV8drj9-z83SIDH5QSDAvcoW9XoKK2shHI...
The others are Peter Zeihan, and an essay in Foreign Affairs. These are not politicians.
Also, JP Morgan doesn't really count for expert. That's not because they don't know what they are doing but because their incentives are not aligned, they have a stock to defend.
There won't be a "V-shaped" recovery. That's just what the administration is hoping for because they understand it will have a massive impact in November.
The best analogy I've heard is that we just had a huge earthquake, and now everyone is waiting for the tsunami of a catastrophic economic crash.
I'll turn it back around to you: by what measure? Spiking nearly 40m jobless claims isn't weathering the storm. Spiking nearly 40m jobless claims, while continuing to see 2m+ every report, seems to be the opposite of weathering the storm.
I mean, the gist is: The American economy is incredibly resilient, and it is showing during this. Yes it's true that jobless claims are increasing, but the expectation is that they will peak next week. While we won't be an overall growth year, the expectation is to close out the year at levels comparable to those in 2010.
In addition to that, the US is just incredibly resilient when compared to the rest of the world. The world still trades using our dollars, they still want to buy our bonds, they still want to invest in our companies. All of this stuff ends up benefiting the US job seeker, and the American family because it means that there are jobs, stability, and the ability to pass monetary policy that protects them in times of crisis.
If you want specific details, there is hours of content that I linked that will explain explicitly why. \\
Who wouldn't when they can't fail?
> All of this stuff ends up benefiting the US job seeker, and the American family
Since the last downturn, roughly half of the jobs created have been approximately gig-economy. An expansion of the precariat isn't helping me, it's not helping my parents, and it's not helping a lot of other Americans. It's actively immiserating people. But, hey, the number went up, so we must be resilient.
> because it means that there are jobs
Unless you're part of the 12% and growing portion of the country that are out of work today, and the 42% of jobs that won't return after.
> stability
Unless you're part of the gig economy workforce or you live in a right-to-work state. So, you know, everyone.
> and the ability to pass monetary policy that protects them in times of crisis.
Nothing protects me like a small business loan that I wouldn't ever qualify for and virtual money printers running full speed.
This is such a deeply ideological take, so i guess it seems in-line with linking to foreignpolicy, but the gist of it is: the American economy is resilient because it has been resilient in the past and we can make this claim by removing the current historical context of the moment.
Yes, exactly.
>Since the last downturn, roughly half of the jobs created have been approximately gig-economy.
Can you source this?
>This is such a deeply ideological take, so i guess it seems in-line with linking to foreignpolicy
What's wrong with foreign policy?
The physical buildings and roads are still there. The people who use them are not, which makes it in practice not in place.
Yeah, we've moved beyond subsistence. In fact, we've moved so far beyond subsistence that we can put the entire economy on hold for months and no one is in even remote danger of starving.
like do you actually believe this? just because none of your friends are starving doesn't mean there aren't people that are
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/22/covid-19-...
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759512938/u-s-census-bureau-r...
38 million.
12% of households don't reliably eat
https://www.feedingamerica.org/about-us/press-room/new-data
people are getting evicted en masse soon
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/us/coronavirus-evictions-...
do you really think "no one" is going starve to death in the US in the coming months? or even that many people aren't?
https://www.hamiltonproject.org/blog/the_covid_19_crisis_has...
It's largely because people—especially the poorest people—have been laid off to protect businesses' balance sheets, and have received a meager attempt at counterbalancing that from the government.
There is absolutely no reason any human needs to starve in the modern world. If we as a society prioritized people's lives and welfare over businesses' profitability—and expressed those priorities consistently through our voting decisions—we could eliminate hunger in America without any kind of serious (or even noticeable) hardship to the rest of us.
/fiddle with CSS
Seriously? There are dozens or hundreds of amazing books on alternative economics. I wouldn't be the best to make the case, and certainly not the first. Do you actually want some recommendations (most of my own canonical ones are a bit old) ?
This is market capitalism unrestrained. Any measures in place to account for "black swan" events get optimized out of existence in the name of short-term efficiency. And why shouldn't they when the government has shown that they will bail out companies over and over?
We also have so little in the way of economic self-reliance anymore, at almost any scale. Certainly not individual or familial (which might not be a good goal anyway), but also not at neighborhood, community, city, state and to some extent even national scales.
The flip side of cheap money is inflation, and it's been building up in the economy since the 2007 crisis. The inflation has been hidden by stagnant wages and falling commodity prices from globalization, so it's led to "top heavy" inflation -- the value of a dollar has been shrinking as the supply of dollars has increased, but that extra supply of dollars has been almost exclusively concentrated in equity markets. Prices of goods have remained in check because the vast majority of people simply don't have access to most of the new money. See also all the US companies sitting on hundreds of billions in cash, stock buybacks, and corporate debt.
I believe the US has 2 economies: one denominated in dollars, the other denominated in millions of dollars. It wasn't seen as "inflation" because most of the inflation indicators used by the federal reserve target the consumer economy. I think we're about to have a really bad decade as all this starts to unwind. The housing market is the first place this will hit (and we're seeing it already); capital will start to flow into REITs buying up residential properties and we'll see prices stay high even or even rise in an economy when they shouldn't be. All but the wealthiest individuals will be priced out of the market (this is already the case in many cities). That means more renters, higher rents, and zoning laws that prevent new housing starts.
The two economies will start to bleed together in the margins between the millionaire economy and the individual economy -- with disastrous results for the people of the country.
You cut salaries because you see less demand. People have less money so they consume less and you see less demand.
We will definitely need a some kind of a new New Deal when this is over. We can't count on the usual way to inject money into the economy. What happened after 2009 shows that this money doesn't trickle down enough.
They figured that out in the 80s. Bad actors have been milking the system for some time.
* There is no good alternative to stocks. Interest rates are 0, bonds aren't returning much, commodities are volatile, and cash is bad vs inflation. You mentioned an increase in mortgage activity which is likely also driven by this in combination with cheap debt. * The fed has shown that they are willing to continue pumping money into the market. This increases confidence in the market driving up prices.
Of course thinking only 10% of aggregate income was cut is wishful thinking; this is going to be the greatest worldwide depression we've seen yet. The UN is forecasting that 130 million more people could be at risk of starvation because of this, all because ~250k old people in developed countries died.
I've been in lockdown for over 2 months now. Cooking instead of ordering in, repairing instead of buying new have now become habitual. I was used to ordering in 3-5 times a week - even though I have above average cooking skills.
2 months of cooking everyday and my brain doesn't think of picking up the phone and ordering food anymore. I just rummage around the kitchen and fix something to eat, even though delivery is now open and I have no hangups about safety.
Maybe the old habits will come back. Maybe they won't. But I sure as hell wouldn't want to build a business that bets on the former.
I think a lot of companies are using the current situation as an excuse to do what they wanted to do anyway. I am pretty sure that during the boom of the last ten years ( the “Obama/Trump” boom ) a lot of excess people have been hired who are now costing a lot of money. I wonder how things will work out in Silicon Valley. The bubble looked already fragile before COVID.
Take care of yourself and your family. Have a backup plan in case of financial hardship. Entertain scenarios, such as social unrest and food supply chain issues, and come up with a plan for you and your family (with hopes that it never comes to that). If you don't feel safe in your city, prepare yourself to leave.
I'm not trying to doom-say or anything like that. You don't have to become a prepper, just think critically for yourself and be flexible in an environment that's unprecedented and fluid.
Recessions cause the movement of money to slow down, that's why getting out of a recession is so hard. Nobody wants to spend money, especially those on the brink.
The entire thing is one big spiral, whether or not it's caused by an actual economic downturn or an external actor (in our case, this whole COVID-19 tragedy), the result is the same.
This is an interesting, and certainly plausible assertion, but do you have data backing it up?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7892788/Middle-cla...
Most recessions/economic downturns have the same story - Great Recession, 1980s, 2008, recent ones.
We're quickly seeing serverless in cloud computing and the equivalent in human capital is inevitable with unemployed and underemployed as well as a high minimum wage with an ever increasing inflation and cost of living. The unpredictable COVID-19 pandemic along with predictable spikes in demand (Black Friday) just accelerate this need.
If that is where the world is going, then, yeah I would prefer to have a head start.
I work for one of the big fortune type companies, but you really never know what can happen.
My late acting town has been "safer at home" since late march. Bay area was earlier, and the things were not normal for many weeks before government orders came out.
Where do you expect people to go? If there is social unrest how will they buy gas to get there? What will they eat? How about shelter?
For reference, I grew up in remote Australia, I spent 2 years driving from Alaska to Argentina, I lived in the Yukon for 4 years (hunting, fishing, winter, etc.), and I spent 3 years driving around Africa. I've seen my fair share of "it hit the fan" and survival type scenarios (people falling through ice into water at -35C, car crashes, etc.)