I don't get the 'it needs to be taken before symptoms!' argument - like we can possibly give a immunosuppressant with non-negligible side-effects (e.g. arrythmia) to billions of people with no scientific evidence of it working on covid at all.
I don't get the 'it needs to be taken before symptoms!' argument - like we can possibly give a immunosuppressant with non-negligible side-effects (e.g. arrythmia) to billions of people with no scientific evidence of it working on covid at all.
I reinstate, before people think I'm some sort of HCQ defender: I am not. The effect size is probably very small. It may be as well that it doesn't work, and I would be happy even if it doesn't.
I just want to see a proper RCT done and sealed.
On currently-available evidence, the balance of risks is to not prescribe this drug for treatment of C19.
https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/techdoc/V5_Revised_advisor...
This is the worst case in terms of risk trade-offs:
Without being admitted as a patient, you will not be monitored as closely especially for coronary complications.
Since you'll be giving it to people before the onset of severe symptoms, you'll be risking side-effects giving it to people who might have been fine without it (and most people will survive with out it).
You'll be giving it to a lot of people which again just increases the chances of serious side-effects.
(PS I hope you're doing well now).
It is a basic and important medicine. It's not that there are no concerns about its safety; it's that the safety concerns are well-known. Those are distinctly different statements.
(As an aside, for example, Tylenol and aspirin can both be quite harmful, but under what conditions they're dangerous is well-known so they are widely used pretty safely. Even so, you still find people inadvertently destroying their livers with Tylenol/paracetemol when they don't realize two OTC medicines contain them and overdose).
So then the question is how much harm are you doing by giving people the drug (under some set of circumstances) vs how great a benefit might someone derive from it.
Clearly on one side, if you gave it to everyone as a prophylactic, that'd likely cause more harm than good. Perhaps, you give it to people who have tested positive but are not admitted to the hospital. Or you can give it to only those who are admitted. Or you can give it only to people who are doing poorly.
Presuming the harmfulness of the medicine is well known you can run some easy hypothetical numbers about how many people will have serious harm or death from receiving it on a wide scale. We have a rough idea of the range of people who will die or have serious cases of COVID. The only thing left is the possible benefit people may get from the medicine.
As of now there is no indication that the benefit is worth the harm to give it out to people in a wide-scale fashion. Additionally, the current studies don't even support giving it to people who are in-patients. In most studies, patients receiving it fare worse than those not.
Not directly in response to this, but a broader observation I ran across was that lockdowns effectively shut down a lot of data creation (infections) about the virus, so there are still a lot of things we don't know, it makes it hard to make informed decisions.
"No serious cardiac adverse effects were recorded in malaria clinical trials of 35,548 participants who received quinoline and structurally related antimalarials with close follow-up including 18,436 individuals who underwent ECG evaluation."
"Chloroquine is the most widely used antimalarial drug in history. It has a terminal elimination half-life of one month and an annual consumption of hundreds of tonnes for over 50 years, so it may be the drug to which humans have been exposed to most. Despite producing consistent QT prolongation, the only case reports of TdP and sudden death have been for its use for non-malaria indications such as systemic lupus erythematosus or rheumatoid arthritis, where high doses are used for much longer than in malaria treatment, or in overdose"
They are often conflated in the media and colloquial reporting.
Anyone can verify what I'm saying if they go to scholar.google.com
Lastly, the argument of "if countries outside the US are prescribing it, it must work" is just nonsensical. Doctors prescribing a drug is not evidence a drug works.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/2141...