It's likely that this or subsequent rounds of QE with already 0 interest rates will blow some unexpected fuse, but the exact scenario will come as a surprise.
It's likely that this or subsequent rounds of QE with already 0 interest rates will blow some unexpected fuse, but the exact scenario will come as a surprise.
It's easy to stoke fear of an ambiguous and nonspecific threat, or contribute to a general feeling of ambient dread. This kind of thinking doesn't help me much.
It's a lot harder to work through a rigorous model of how the economy actually works, that's consistent with historical and geographic precedent. That kind of thinking would help me a lot, but I'm not sure where to find it.
I've heard people crying wolf about hyperinflation for the 30 years that I can remember, and it keeps not happening.
Instead, we have contemporary examples like Japan, which has been at zero interest rates with high levels QE for literally decades, and there's no hint of collapse there.
Is this time any different for some reason?
Even though it's not quantitative models, I can only recommend "Navigating big debt crisis" by Ray Dalio. Also, he published some chapters of his new book -- The changing world order -- online recently: https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introdu...