At least I hope that's scaremongering. Given that everyone is doing their best to return to normal, I feel like running out of unemployment may not be as big of an issue as stated.
The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.
My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term
Social safety nets in the US are mostly handled at the state level, and that doesn't look like it's showing any signs of changing.
I would agree, but in an election year maybe they won't play it that way. The party in power has more incentive to keep voters mollified than they do in preserving their ideological purity.
> we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term
100% agree. This is the classical American response, we have mastered the art of kicking the can down the road.
I don't mean to argue over any details, just pointing out that our federal government has had an axe taken to it for the last few years and it might not be able to do very obvious things right now.
Will Florida really wait for the federal government when Jacksonville is full of rioters, or will they setup food banks far in advance of that situation?
I predict the later. Especially since States can do debt financing for their operations.
The fall of the soviet union saw unemployment at 40% and widespread food rationing/limitations. I don't believe there is historic precedent for unemployment growing beyond 20-25% without widespread economic and societal restructuring, the great depression in the US saw the change from a government spending .3% of the economy to >30%.
In the case of the US: the economy was hollowed out by the 08 recession and Republicans prevented economic stimulus packages that would help in speedy recovery from passing. All the gains of the past 10 years were wiped out in a few months. At some point you have to ask how much pain people are willing to accept before casting aside a system which does not work.
There is no perfect system to avoid catastrophe. Not yours, not mine. Humanity progresses. It will continue to do so.
Sometimes the best way to fix something is to riot in the streets. I hope it doesn't come to that, but often it does.
Every couple hundred years or so a fraction of humanity dies due to disaster and/or strife, and we collectively continue to thrive and improve. This has been the pattern for all of recorded history. Why do you think it will be any different now?
It's a nice sentiment to have when you aren't the one counting your formula stock and worrying how you'll take care of your 1 y.o. if shit hits the fan and there's no longer food to be found in the foreseeable future.
Taking things from perspective isn't as fun if there's a real possibility you'll end in the middle of it. Catastrophes and collapses are part of humanity's growth, but that's not going to be a consolation if your society starts disintegrating about you. Some people will survive such an event. Neither you nor me will likely be among those.
You can stockpile against the next disaster to the best of your ability, if you want. Collectively we can prepare for disasters, to the extant we agree on how to do so. And the world keeps going on, some are lucky, some are not, kind of like every other creature in nature. We are no different.
The "anti-rich" topic has been going on for so long without a real conclusion, I definitely would not discredit the possibility of riots in certain US cities.
> Can we riot on the internet?
And I think that hits the core issue. There's a lot of "eat the rich" on reddit and imgur and undoubtedly other platforms, but that's like #kony2012: clicktivism and online LARPing as revolutionaries.
Riots are always a possibility, a sports event can be the cause, and so may be severe economic issues, but I doubt that they will be widespread and large. If they happen, I expect swift and violent suppression, and since they won't be bi-partisan, that suppression will find a lot of support in the population.
Occupy Wall Street.
Now, what happens when that expands to 1/10 of citizens due to lack of food, people getting evicted, no work, and more? Covid-19 is only accelerating the road we're currently on, in a very quick fashion.
And there's a reason why police departments were buying military surplus. They view us citizens as the enemy. There's nary a reason why you need APCs with 50cal's mounted for the local police force, or armed with a variety of grenades, or microwave cannons, or acoustic weapons.
Whatever it is that's forming and coming to a head, it doesn't look peaceful. At. All.
> Given that everyone is doing their best to return to normal, I feel like running out of unemployment may not be as big of an issue as stated.
The bigger test may be once the PPP funds are exhausted in about a month.
https://battlepenguin.com/politics/this-is-not-a-time-of-hon...
I think there's enough slack in the system we won't see food shortage. The lines at food banks are a different problem entirely. That's because people don't have jobs, and are afraid to spend what they do have in savings and unemployment.
And....no, people aren't lining up at food banks because they are "afraid to spend what they have". They mostly don't have anything to spend. Free food means they can afford the electricity bill, not that they can leave savings untouched.
> improving your skills for unexpected job loss is a good idea
This is the one I struggle with when I see it - if your industry collapses what skills are the ones you should have been working on? Software is our own special beast, but I don't know what skills in a lesser paid profession should work on that will keep them employable. I suppose they could dabble in something like code, but that's not relevant to their current profession and if the economy goes all topsy turvy it'll be hard to get a job with little skill and no experience in your plan b.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9308_world_food_pri...