Hacker News Reader

Comment by rpiguy | Hacker News Reader

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity.

I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily toward age and whether or not you are in a nursing home. Seniors outside of nursing homes are doing an order of magnitude better than those in homes.

Over half of US counties have no COVID deaths. The number are skewed terribly by NY/NJ as well.

View on HN

Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities.

Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 deaths. That’s four times the number of yearly traffic deaths, double the number of overdose deaths (both already high for comparable countries)

Those 160.000 might not return every year, but if this behaves as a typical virus, it could mutate enough to return every few years.

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.

Or ~240,000K each month in total (across all demographics)

(~8000/day)

Well the mortality difference by age is stunning:

According to CDC data, 81% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are people over 65 years old, most with preexisting conditions. If you add in 55-64-year-olds that number jumps to 93%.

For those below age 55, preexisting conditions play a significant role, but the death rate is currently around 0.0022%, or one death per 45,000 people in this age range.

Below 25 years old the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 0.00008%, or roughly one in 1.25 million.

NYC's data defines underlying illness as "disease, asthma, heart disease, a weakened immune system, obesity, diabetes, kidney disease, liver disease and cancer."

As I point out in the thread, even estimating 50% of people under 65 have an underlying illness (lets say thats 25% under 17, 50% 18-44, and 75% in 45-64 to roughly get us there) moves the "Under 65 healthy IFR" only up to 0.09%.

> the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

If that's true (and I don't think it is) that's a serious problem.

BTW smoking is not a comorbidity, it's an habit that could or could not develop a comorbity given enough time.

All substance abuse, including smoking, is a comorbidity[1]. While it's hard to find exact statistics, the US Department of Health and Social Services estimates that 50% of non-elderly Americans have a pre-existing condition[2]. Those conditions don't necessarily represent a comorbidity, but a nasty systemic infection like Covid-19 leaves little space for non-overlap.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comorbidity

2: https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-...

I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.

Assume you mean who "do" have comorbidities?

I did!

I think the only ones assuming here are those who assume that he underestimated the number of people with comorbidity.

I believe you are underestimating how bad US society is in regards to healthcare and how much they overestimate some condition (like blood pressure related hearth diseases) to avoid reimbursing insurance bills.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com