Is it reasonable to ask the public to believe absolute messages that contradict themselves?

Maybe what the boy who cried wolf meant was “I am not sure whether a wolf is in the forest. But the potential damage from a wolf a attack, combined with the increased likelihood of a wolf presence due to the observation of fresh wolf droppings, exceeds the damage from sheltering in place.”

But the like the epidemiologists, simply said “There’s a wolf in the forest! Run away!”