Moving on from iPad "office productivity" apps
marco.org
marco.org
If you ever see someone with their laptop open in one hand and (optionally) carrying their AC adapter with the other, heading off to a meeting room, that's what iPad is for.
If you see a doctor walking in to the office, greeting you, then turning their back to you to clack something into a desktop facing the wall, that's what an iPad is for.
If you see a delivery person or home-service person (plumber, contractor, arborist, lawn mower) or even a cop sit in their car for several minutes as you look at them wondering what the hell they are doing in there for so long, that's what an iPad is for.
When you see a realtor have their laptop setup and using some clunky interface to hook into as you gather around leaning over a kitchen island to see some number or other, that's what an iPad is for.
It's not for coding sessions or writing novels or anything crazy like that. It's for plugging into a projector to do a presentation; it's for handing to you to sign after it's been used to swipe your credit card for a purchase, or when you receive a delivery; it's for your doctor showing you a test result without you getting out of your chair or bed.
Give it a few years, then it'll look less like a toy and more like the Jetsons.
Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick -- as if the iPad was the only device with a battery that lasts all day (and that the office worker didn't just unplug their laptop at their desk, where it had been freshly charged).
Police in their cars don't need a smaller display, and when they're out of the car they don't need yet another thing dangling from their belts. Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application and I suspect playing movies as well isn't a high priority at FedEx HQ's IT planning meetings. Etc, etc.
Where is this place you go? Because doctor's offices either have desktop workstations or a lightbox to throw up X-Rays (or will just show you print-outs). With an iPad they can just pinch out to zoom in. YC and Start fund seems to dig the idea of doctor's using iPads, seeing as how Dr Chrono got funded.
"Some of your examples seem contrived, like the office meeting where someone is dragging their power brick"
It's not contrived because I saw that constantly at the office I worked in (before I started working from home).
"Police in their cars don't need a smaller display"
The ones I've seen in cruisers have 10" display bog-standard notebooks (some I believe still use DSTN screens, which are ancient as hell).
"Delivery drivers already have solutions that are designed for their specific application"
Right, as if that gigantic gizmo with 1000 buttons and a tiny monochrome resistive pressure-pen screen UPS drivers carry for signature confirmation is the end-all technology for delivery drivers.
It's probable the doctors involved had desks and PCs, but as a patient/client I didn't see their office. I saw them in examining rooms and operating rooms -- places where an iPad simply makes no sense.
We could argue hypotheticals all day and it wouldn't change anything. I'll believe your examples when I see them in the real world.
There's alot of evidence out there that it is being used for business[1]. And, even more pilot rollouts in disparate industries. It's still a really young technology in its current "slate form factor + simple OS + simple native/web apps" incarnation, but already iPad is starting to eat away at netbook market/mindshare.
[1] http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9182498/iPad_lures_bu...
Just the other day I was waiting for a client in front of his office while I watched some people set up for a presentation in a neighbouring room that was almost literally that same example you find so unlikley. They had to get the laptop out, turn it on, get the power brick out, find an outlet, find a cable for the projector, configure the laptop to talk to the projector...
Let me put it to you this way: would the meeting scene you witnessed have been any better if they'd had iPads instead of MacBook Air laptops?
Don't try to make it look like the iPad is the only option or the best option. Considering the amount of control that Apple exerts over this device AFTER the purchase, iPad can even be a liability in some scenarios.
In that sense I think Apple's message is the same this year as it was last year. Consider Garage Band. It's not about the five bucks. It's not even really about selling more iPads (though it will undoubtedly help). It's really about demonstrating the absence of certain perceived limitations about what a "giant iPod" can do.
I think that's what Apple's overall strategy with its apps is: to keep pounding away at perceived limitations of the platform, both in functionality and performance, with vivid real-world demonstrations of what's possible. Consider that all five paid applications that Apple has demoed at the iPad events are content creation applications, striking squarely at the persistent criticism of it as a "consumption" device.
Maybe next year we'll see Xcode.
If I can speak from my experience, I still see iOS as mostly a gaming and entertainment platform. You mention that with Garage Band, Apple removed some perceived limitations about the platform - yes, I agree, but so what, for many it is still an entertainment application.
To sum it up, until now I am not that impressed with what App Store offers - they are just a handful of useful applications there, drowning in a sea of games/entertainment/kill-time apps. We are still far away from that so-called "post-PC era".
There are people who feel the iPad does each of those things inadequately (as with productivity apps), but the point is to demonstrate that it can do those things, whether you do or not. To show that it's not (say) a web-browsing device that can't game or a media player that can't browse the web or an e-reader that can't edit HD video. It can't do everything for everybody, but I think they're trying to expand the capabilities into doing almost everything for almost anybody (as a PC does) rather than seeking a sweet spot.
Since she spends a lot of her days on the move and doesn't like to work at a desk, the iPad has been a godsend for her. Before, she used to have to carry her craptop around and plug it in all the time to get power. Now, she just carries her iPad, and usually doesn't even bother to take the power supply with her, because the battery lasts so long. And she can use it on the bus, on the tube, etc.
Then she gets home and kicks back on the couch or in bed and reads some message boards, watches some YouTube or Netflix videos, or plays some casual games.
Maybe we'll get there eventually and building rich apps on iOS (or equivalent) will make sense. Or maybe I'll just have to become a rich VC and only need email and Keynote. Both of those scenarios would work for me.
Having a sister 10 years younger than me (14) has taught me that younger generations are not use to our protocols and therefore hold no squeamishness about breaking the conventions of them. For example, if you have her (or her peer's) attention you know this because she has removed one phone(MP3 player) earbud to listen to you. She doesn't see continuing to use the technology as a potential distraction/rudeness, and in many senses resents the older generations (teachers/parents) for demanding her absolute attention for every trivial thing.
The iPad is our bridge from dropping in and out of the internet in the real world all the time, because a full drop is seen as rude, but her generation won't really care about that. They'll just drop in and out as they please, which is why I suspect that they'll have little use for the iPad, except as the training bridge for dinosaurs like us.
Neural interfaces seem a little too far forward though, it seems like you'd need another generation to have that be socially "normal," and that they'll need their own cultural bridge technology. There must be something between an iPad and neural interfaces which lets us casually and continuously wander in and out of the internet.
Probably something wearable: http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/03/wearable-computing...
My guess:
a pair of glasses (in which you can see a screen--or transparency for augmented reality) with full voice control. Bluetooth keyboard and trackpad optional for productivity usage. Can also control via iPhone or iPad.
If you're at home or at work, your keyboard and monitor auto-connect to your cellphone to provide a full-sized screen. If you're on the go, you use your cellphone as-is, or you use an eyepiece or tablet as an alternate display. Ideally, the main apps you use would provide appropriate user interfaces for each situation.
Subvocalization transducer + earbuds (and/or video glasses)?
As the owner of a mid-2010 Macbook Pro and a first-gen iPad, I think the new Macbook Air, which is a significant step in that direction, could replace both devices for me.
The iPad cannot be used for productivity work (coding, writing, even longer emails), but my 15" MBP is relatively clunky, especially for the type of consumption activities that the iPad excels at (i.e. reading on the couch, watching a TV episode, etc.) I wish I could have the best of both worlds.
The new iPad version of Garage Band really captures this: in some ways it's better than the Logic Pro I have on my laptop; I can play keys on it, I can trigger drums with my fingers, etc., but it's painfully underpowered (in terms of CPU, memory, I/O, etc.) to comfortably record a serious track on it (despite what Gorillaz accomplished).
I'm waiting for a Macbook Air with a full touch screen, and a new OS that fully combines the simplicity and interactivity of iOS with the power and breadth of OSX.
You're in for a long wait then. Jobs said laptops with touch screens is total bullshit when talking at the new air launch.
Coding apart, it works great for these things if you use the bluetooth keyboard.
The Air is great but the real problem is when you are moving around. The iPad is perfectly natural to carry with you and to be used standing up - the Air, because of its laptop form factor just isn't.
(and yes, I run Ubuntu on it instead of OS X)
The same can't be said for other designers of 11" laptops as yet. You really need a great trackpad to work with, because you do have to zoom in at times, and a great quality screen as well. The SSD helps tons as well. The MBA is the best designed 11" I've come across.
That said, I too would love to be able to work on a tablet. Basically all I need is vim and Chrome. What I'm thinking is connecting the iPad to a bigger screen and using the pad as a keyboard, but nah it doesn't seem realistic.
Pundits keep missing the point. Tablets aren't about replacing desktops or laptops, they're about "anywhere, anytime, always on".
C'mon, people, it's a half inch thick and 24 ounces. There is no keyboard, and the bluetooth keyboard is more a makeshift hack than solution.
Mine paid for itself in a month by giving me the ability to work anywhere anytime - not work well as I would with a desktop, but work at all in the little 5-15 minute gaps, regardless of where I was.
In addition, it enhances personal life for the same reason: books, movies, email, games, internet, news, etc all in the same ubiquitous tiny sliver of a package.
Gonna do real work? Get a desktop.
Office apps are available not to replace the desktop, but to let you do basic work anywhere anytime.
And a notebook is a desktop pared down to it's barerest compromise to achieve portabiliy. Give up a bit more functionality and you get a tablet.
I will absolutely use my primary computer with its giant display for development, complex games, video encoding and photo work. I will absolutely continue to bring my new MacBook Pro to client sites.
But for everything else I will be slouching in my lounge chair with my iPad. Even typing out responses such as this one I'm typing at about 80-90% of the speed of a physical keyboard. Most of my leisure computing activities are browsing, Twitter, the occasional IM and email -- and I absolutely prefer the iPad for those activities over my MacBook Pro or my development workstation.
I've used a computer for 30 minutes since Friday. I haven't had a need to. With work that changes, and that's fine. But for play, this is without question my preferred device. Especially since I seem to be getting 15-18 hours of usability from a charge since the screen only needs to be at about 30% brightness to be easy to read.
I occasionally watch a CNBC trading show ("Fast Money"). The four traders at the desk used to have live market feeds delivered to laptops that sat on the desk, and those were replaced with iPads on stands last year. Now some of those traders have their laptops back in addition to the iPads, presumably because when you're looking at charts and numbers, bigger is better.
Secondly lots of office apps are based on traditional paradigms and metaphors related to printed documents. I think the key insight will be to create a new document type that makes more sense for tablet consumption, and maybe this new document will lead to a new kind of office app less reliant on the keyboard and mouse.
1. Eliminating the keyboard dock makes sense just because the Bluetooth keyboard is a much better solution. I just put my iPad on a book stand when I use it, but Apple's regular dock would do as a stand. I don't use the keyboard that much - really only when I have a long email to write, or some text to write that I want to capture while it's in my head, but when I do it's vital.
2. Pages and numbers are actually quite popular on the App Store. Maybe that's because people haven't figured out that they aren't going to use them but I'm not so sure. I don't have a computer at home anymore, and occasionally I need to print letters (e.g. To the bank, to landlords, etc.). For this kind of light usage, Pages and an AirPrint printer work very well. For domestic use that's really all most people need. But without pages or an equivalent I simply wouldn't be able to do this.
So a less sweeping view is that doing light office tasks is actually very important for the iPad to be viable. It's just that it's solved now and the keyboard dock isn't needed.
However, I think we've already found it: the web.
Maybe that's not the only thing the iPad will come to pass as the definitive device for. But it's certainly off to a good start.
Whenever I think about buying one, this is why it comes to mind. I think it would be fun to play games on.
I really don't see the harm in marketing it as a game console. MS has XBox, Apple has iPad. Seems legitimate to me.
All I use my Galaxy Tab for is games. Except maybe to check a website from time to time.
Competitors swept in, played down the "kiddy" game aspect of their systems and played up the productivity aspect and demolished the Amiga in the market place.
Extending a system perceived as a "gaming system" into other tasks has been extremely hard. Despite being decent TV-top web browsers for a while, dedicated gaming consoles have never really found a role outside of gaming for example. At one time, the PS2 had enough peripherals and such for it to turn it into a fully fledged general computing device, but it never took off as such since it's just a game console.
In Japan, theres a similar problem with pre-PC computers like the MSX, PC-88 or the X68000, all great general purpose computer, all viewed as game consoles, all dead dead dead.
(yes there are plenty of other reasons for the death of the Amiga, but the general consumer's view that it was a gaming device definitely played part in that)
While on tour, Damon Albarn created an entire Gorillaz album on his iPad: http://thefall.gorillaz.com/
For a lot of people, the iPad has ended up being an awesome platform for $2 games. And that's valid too. We like to play. Sometimes we play by making cool stuff. It's not as if the iPad is the first general-purpose computing device to have a mix of "useful" stuff and games; how many Apple IIs were bought with the intent of balancing one's budget?
We got over it.
We don't understand touchscreens well enough yet. We are using an old metaphor (the keyboard) and porting it completely literally. We might never replace the keyboard fully, but surely there is room to innovate.
1. I still dont like laptops that much either
2. iPad makes a great productivity device in a supplementary role. It substitutes for reference books and documentation. And it's better to switch to the iPad if you want to read a long article. And there's those little single-purpose apps for doing things like regular expressions, drawings, recordings.
Split it up into two 30 degree rotated sections in horizontal mode and two thumbpads in vertical mode and it'll make typing a helluva lot easier.
We can begin to see what this potential is already. The key is the form factor and the input. (I mean, what else is there to the iPad? The whole point of the design is to reduce it to that point.)
The form factor is about personal consumption of information and about interpersonal sharing of information. It's about handling data and content in a way which is immediate, as if the app were your content and your're handling your content directly -- not that there's an app between you and your content.
Focus on these two aspects, and there's a good chance that your app will be revolutionary and disruptive.
I have nothing specific in mind that disputes your assertion, but the linked article below says this, which sounds meaningful - "80% of Fortune 100 testing/deploying, 366 documented mass rollouts."
I'm also hearing that Microsoft views the iPad as a potentially disruptive force in the enterprise, though that is second hand.
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/sybase/ipad-2-will-continue-enterp...
Most large businesses have a variety of native windows apps they rely on. The ipad works well as a web browser, but misses all of these. Companies have large investments in these programs, and having them inaccessible is a liability for the ipad. As an example, I have seen business units literally "powered" by excel spreadsheets and VBA. The iPad can't deal with things like this.
Standard native file access. How do I open a config file with "notepad" in the iPad? How do I browse to the file? What app opens it?
Windows permissions. The iPad can't work with Windows file system permissions, so it is a second class device on Windows-based networks, if you want to access files, it does not play well with your carefully created Windows permissions, so those access rules and group policies are lost on it.
The iPad is not a part of the standard microsoft security apparatus, so it is "special" in this regard. It won't get Windows updates, security bulletins, etc in the same way. It needs special attention from IT, and carries separate and perhaps unknown security risks.
Since the iPad is oriented toward finger-touch, stylus apps don't work well, so note taking apps don't work well.
The app store is consumer and game oriented, something businesses would specifically like to avoid on their devices, generally. Because of the app store approval process, and low price point expectations "Enterprise" business apps are loathe to move to it and risk a heavy investment that could be arbitrarily destroyed.
The iPad's success in the Enterprise is really a result of a failure of imagination and execution by Apple's competitors.