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The article may not have technical content, but the title certainly is true: http://pseudoexpertise.com/

Well the flame is saying it's a misunderstanding of the difference between data smoothing and model-based forecasting.

To which I'd say that just begs the question of if there's a difference to begin with, and what criteria you would use to distinguish them if they are.

Of course there's a difference between smoothing and forecasting. It's the difference between interpolation and extrapolation.

But I can't figure out what anyone in the original discussion is really saying, if anything.

To begin, if the curve doesn't extend into the future, it can't forecast anything.

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