There is a third possible 'end state', which is that each restrictive country with a large market ends up in a 'sandbox'. This could look a lot like the Great Firewall, but outsourced.
For example, Chinese services are still available beyond the firewall, just not catered to the average non-Chinese.
To the consumer, most don't care, for most purposes; c.f. TikTok's popularity.
Facebook has also been working hard on their translation features to reduce language barriers.