Study: Only 5% of Spanish Population has Covid-19 Antibodies [pdf]

ciencia.gob.es

2 pointsmicrotherion3 comments

We already knew it way before the study: mortality rate Covid-19 = 1.5%. 40.000 deaths. 100*40000/1.5 = 2.600.000 infected => 5% prevalence (Spain population 47 million)

Based on NYC mortality figures as a lower bound, I also thought the rate must be in that neighborhood.

But there were influential dissenters, e.g. the infamous Stanford study a few weeks ago estimating nearly 3% infected in Santa Clara County, or the Swedish authorities’ conviction that 25-30% of the population in Stockholm is infected.

This study seems to provide pretty strong evidence that those estimates were too high... not that I expect it to change anyone’s mind at this point.

Text only available in Spanish, unfortunately. But IMHO interesting because with >60,000 participants, it may be the largest longitudinal study so far.

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