Hacker News Reader

HN: told you so.

The Sweden paper results matches the Bay Area to a T.

(My estimate is that the Bay Area already reached herd immunity in March based on corona arriving in Dec. and flat hospital rates in the local dashboard.)

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx#ho...

View on HN

I'm sorry, but the estimates of covid-19 IFR range to over 1% to 0.1%. Out of ~2M people in Santa Clara County, the death toll is 129 as of today. Bump that up because some people died at home, but let's start with 129. If the IFR is ~0.5%, that means ~26K infections. 26K / 2M is 1.3% infected. And you think we've reached herd immunity here? The blog post predicts herd immunity at ~25%.

The same as you assume some people died at home, some people got infected without symptoms at home and are now recovered. Unless you do a mass test of antibodies it will be hard to estimate the real number of infected and recovered people.

That is why gp used an IFR to estimate the number of infections. They already took untested infections into account.

> If the IFR is ~0.5%

On the link I provided, you can see the actual testing results. 10% of those tested have/had corona.

No need to make up stats.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com