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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

> If you are an insider buying puts now you could also potentially look at some jail time.

Information is public at this point, you might breach a contract if you've got equity but it's not jail time. Assuming recent regulatory actions, even if your actions were egregious, it's likely no jail time, just a large fine and disgorging profits made.

Disclaimer: Not a lawyer, not your lawyer.

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There is definitely material information with respect to this deal that is still not yet public and trading on it, or even appearing to trade on it, would absolutely risk jail time.

I agree with you in the event you are someone with access to material non-public information. Your average IC outside of legal or finance is unlikely to have such information. My argument is that the potential transaction itself is now public. Obviously, if you have material non-public information, you should not trade on that unless you want to end up in a Matt Levine piece.

Insider meaning someone who knew about this deal. If you are an insider shorting things before deals are announced, you absolutely can face criminal charges which can include a prison sentence.

> you absolutely can face criminal charges which can include a prison sentence.

You can (the chance is not 0), but the chances are very rare based on recent historical SEC enforcement actions. I'm not advocating for securities fraud, I'm expressing the observation of lax enforcement by the SEC.

https://www.sec.gov/files/enforcement-annual-report-2019.pdf

Have fun taking your chances on that.

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