It's totally possible that the price might go up, but the reason for that rise would be the irrational behavior of other market participants and people should acknowledge that.
It's totally possible that the price might go up, but the reason for that rise would be the irrational behavior of other market participants and people should acknowledge that.
Perhaps this is glib, but it's worth remembering that bitcoin isn't a rational market. At no point in its history has the market reacted rationally to any event.
It only appears rational in hindsight, if at all. But "rational" implies a causal link between an explanation and a subsequent event. Those explanations almost never turn out to be true.
BitCoin is gambling where big players intentionally alter the price and small players hope to sap some $$$ like fleas on a dog.
Rationality, for economists, simply means that when you make a choice, you will choose the thing you like best.¹ This is very different from the way we normally think about rationality. Usually when we talk about rationality we use it to mean sensible, or reasonable. To economists—as long as you’re doing what you want given your situation, you’re acting rationally.
[1]read.hipporeads.com/what-an-economist-means-by-rationality/
Yes, current prices include anticipated future events (or at least speculation on those events, as well as anticipated behavior of market participants based on those events, yada yada), to an extent. What prices can't anticipate is the behavior of market participants at any point in the future, much of which will be irrational; or the events in future history that may or may not trigger that behavior.
Yes, there is alpha to be gained based on data collection/processing -- things like news, weather, twitter, satellite images of traffic or parking lots, etc. The more you know and can effectively analyze that other market participants don't know or can't effectively analyze, the better. But no one really knows the future, only what traders are statistically likely to do in the near future based on current events.