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Comment by louiswilbrink | Hacker News Reader

Just want to offer perspective from the investor side: I own just one Airbnb in a hot market (downtown, hip neighborhood) and even though bookings were cancelled in April, they’re building back up for May and summer months. It was scary for sure for a span of several weeks, but there were always other contingencies before liquidating (like converting it to a long term rental).

Even if I went along with the panic, it would take probably three months to go through with any transaction that would throw a desirable property onto the market. The demand is still so strong that the low price would likely chum the waters and competitive bidding would drive the price up.

I think these Airbnb liquidation sale headlines are being sensational and end up wasting buyers time.

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That may be the case in your particular market, but there are plenty of international tourist hotspots that may not even have summer tourism this year. Open up Google Maps and zoom in to the eastern half of Mallorca: you'll see roughly 3 out of 4 of the homes there are "agroturismos." It's possible they won't see a single booking all summer.

We have multiple short term rentals in Maui. We are planning for them to be vacant for at least six months. Yes people are still trying to book as others cancel, but this is how we are planning.

Honest question: this being the start of summer in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't the next six months be your slow time anyway? Or does tourism to Maui / Hawaii not fluctuate seasonally as much as I perceive?

Our peak season is mid December untill end of April. It doesn't fluctuate too much though, and summer is quite busy. September/October are the slowest months, but slowness is really just lower prices to some extent.

Thanks! Good info.

Airlines currently are throwing incentives to cancel later vs earlier.

From airline's standpoint it's logical - as some states and countries lift the lockdown order the flights might actually take place on normal schedule. From traveler's standpoint it's also rational - I get a full refund if United cancels the flight, but "store credit" if I cancel the trip on my own. I also get the same United voucher whether I cancel the trip a month in advance or 48 hours in advance.

This affects any lodging reservation in a negative way, though - what looks like a steady supply of bookings months out turns into a series of cancellations closer to the dates of the stay.

>Airlines currently are throwing incentives to cancel later vs earlier.

An insightful comment, and it's exactly why I booked a vacation flight for late this year already. United in particular was offering very generous terms - they were offering book now, and no penalties or fees for changing the flight within the next 2 years.

I'm not booking any flights this year at the moment. The only thing that would make me fly is a couple of fall events--which I don't really expect to happen. But I'd consider booking something in the fall so long as I could fully cancel it.

Yeah I have a feeling many of those people will be cancelling.

I take anecdotes about people booking travel plans with something of a grain of salt. For the right price, I might book something for the fall if the price were right AND it was fully cancelable. (Probably not if it involved paying up front though as there are too many things that could go wrong at this point.)

And to add a new perspective, over here in Europe we've also started thinking in terms of "if the second wave catches me in a different country while vacationing will I be able to come back in my home country more or less easily?"

The answer to that question has been a definite "no" for lots of people during this latest and recent first wave (which has now started retreating a little) and I suspect lots of people will think twice before vacationing in a different country (even if that second country it's also in the Schengen area).

Yes. That would make me far more hesitant to travel internationally than actual fear of catching the virus or just having trip plans messed up because of closures. It's vaguely possible I'll do it for business in the fall in the unlikely case that a particular event is held physically. At least, my expenses aren't an issue in that case. But I'm likely to stick to US and likely just driving.

you're almost certainly not in a vacation hotspot. in FL, many of the coastal counties have banned short term airbnb style renting indefinitely. miami dade and broward counties in FL are still uber locked down and won't even be considered for partial reopening until May 18.

I don’t see how your first sentence is supported by the rest of them.

Short term rentals/vacation rentals are banned at the state level by the Governor in FL.

It's going to be interesting what this does to housing prices in Florida, since they've already been pretty low for housing north of the Everglades due to all the available land

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