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Comment by blisterpeanuts | Hacker News Reader

10 years in the U.S.? I thought the path to citizenship or green card was 5 years, or 7 years at most? This is really not a very fair system.

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Hah, the 10 years estimate is totally false.

Present estimates put it between 50 - 150 years. Yes, I kid you not. The path to GC for Indians, might as well be closed shut for all intents and purposes.

https://www.am22tech.com/eb2-india-predictions/

https://medium.com/@happy_sushi_roll/the-endless-wait-for-a-...

I have an Indian dev friend who's here on an H1B in exactly the situation that KorematsuFred describes. H1B is just a more sophisticated "Gentlemen's Agreement" (a racist way of using Asian peoples' labor while denying them the benefits of citizenship).

You’ve hit the nail on the head.

And yet knowing this, they still come. Why?

Different reasons for different people. Some combination of:

* It's better than the alternative, and it can be made to work, since once I140 is approved you can renew H1 indefinitely (unless sth goes wrong, like right now, but that's a risk that doesn't look so big initially when all is still well).

* The wait only became this bad around 2008 or so. At the time, nobody knew there wouldn't be a realistic chance to get to gc. A lot of people have been in the system since that time.

* It doesn't always start with wanting to move to the US permanently. You go to a US college, or move for a job in the US (maybe the company you've already been part of offered it, maybe not), thinking it'd temporary. Then you build a life, make friendships, and realize you want to stay.

* Or maybe your parents moved when you are a kid and the US is all you know. But when you turn 18, it's F1/OPT/H1 or go to a foreign country (that you happen to be a citizen of, but have no real relationship with).

Above are all real examples I personally know.

Also, while for non-Indian immigrants it is at least possible to get a gc eventually, this is also by no means certain. Very stressful as well.

H1B was always supposed to be a temporary worker program. People have been using it as an easier-to-get form of quasi-residency with the intention to move on to green cards. Everyone in the industry and govt have been winking and nodding at each other for so long that now there's a big pool of people who are basically residents without a right to stay other than nearly-automatic extensions. Govt gives businesses what they want with these workers, while superficially giving the public what they want with limits on green cards.

The green card process on the other hand just takes however many weeks or months it takes to process the paperwork. But there is a per-country limit per year. So if a vast number of people from your country are tying to immigrate you can end up in a really long line.

Citizenship has the requirement of being a permanent resident for a fixed number of years before you can apply.

> H1B was always supposed to be a temporary worker program.

At the same time there isn't any practical way of immigrating to the US other than being very rich, very specialized (and Outstanding) or a family member of a US citizen.

You are confusing quantity and quality. There are many more ways, including unskilled EB3 and DV, it's just too many people want to immigrate so, naturally, visas with less requirements run out faster/ have longer wait. E.g. there are just 5 or 10 thousand EB3 unskilled spots per year and, while DV is 50K, a country that had too many immigrants in the previous year cannot participate on top of the enormous number of applications from the ones, who do participate.

Depends on the country, for people from India or China, 10 years is generous even. For people from other countries ~5 to 7 years sounds normal.

Each queue is managed by country of origin. Last time I read about it, each country would get, at most, 7% of the available GCs.

What is more fair? A guy from Island waiting 20 years because he is stuck behind 1 billion Indians? Or Indians waiting longer because more of their nationals are applying? Honestly, I don't know, but I know the 7% rule is justified. The idea is to avoid massive inbound diaspora that would be very hard for the country to absorbed culturally.

The problem is not just the per country limit, but also that the total number of greencards available hasn't been updated in decades to keep up with the significant US and worldwide population growth, effectively reducing chances to get one.

Also, EB1/2/3 wasn't supposed to do diversity, that's what the diversity lottery is for.

Also, the limit could've been applied to visas instead of greencards. I don't see how keeping people in limbo inside the US for decades/lifetimes is reasonable. If they are here de facto permanently anyway, they should get a path to citizenship. A two-class society is wrong.

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