What are your bets on the future? | Hacker News Reader

What are your bets on the future?

13 pointstopaztee16 comments

Sept/Oct the central banks can't save economies from the 2nd wave of covid-19 and the markets fall 40-50% in 7-10 days time.

Unlike most ‘bets’ or even predictions about market timing that’s specific enough that you can actually turn that into a market position.

Do you have options or futures contracts for November? If not, why not?

I don't trade in over 4 week options to expire.

There is usually a sell off in Sept/Oct even in a bullish market. So if covid is still with us during that time and things start to get worse what you'll see is panic selloffs like we saw in early march but this will be a lot worse.

That’s assuming many things... including that countries actually shutdown. It’s also assuming the 2nd wave is bad and there’s not enough partial herd immunity to slow it down and assuming we don’t have a better treatment course or even a vaccine. Even if a vaccine is only 50% effective it would be a huge win.

While I understand the nature of your statement I also think humans and therefore markets are resilient. Many companies have pivoted to online and contactless delivery and are doing well. I’m sure there will be a loss but I’m not expecting 50%...

No way they make a vaccine in 5 months. Also, what if having sufficient antibodies has a lifespan, like 6 months?

6 months would be enough for the current pandemic to fizzle out. If the virus can't find susceptible hosts anymore it'll simply die. For now, that is.

Until it reappears or until we have a proper vaccine, for that matter (which at first might require several shots at intervals, too), treatments and general preparedness can improve.

What do you mean by bets? Things I'm so sure will happen that I'm actually willing to put money down, or stuff that I think will happen to a decent degree?

And do you mean in any particular field or about life in general?

tilting towards "stuff that I think will happen to a decent degree?" and any field, however you see fit.

In the context of Covid19, I just wrote a blog post outlining 3 megatrends I'm seeing emerging:

- shutdown-cozy - hygienic-possessive - locally-remote

Bit too hi-res for a comment, so here's the post if you're interested:

https://fabian.ai/2020/04/29/shutdown-cozy-hygienic-possessi...

I enjoyed your post and, not wanting to make assumptions about you and yours, I think your post rings true for the "Middle Class / Middle Age" segment of the population. My experience - with the exception of the 'Hygienic Protective' aspect - is almost identical to what you wrote.

Personally I am still trying to determine what the COVID-19 experience both reflects and what it has set in motion.

I think personal agency (the lack or exercise of) is one big trend at the moment. From those people who have discovered personal agency in baking sourdoughs and cherishing the quarantine quiet to those who are protesting the perceived wrongness of governmental lock-downs, everyone seems to be rediscovering their need to own themselves and their fate. What this means in the long term, I don't know, but I believe your "megatrends" are interlinked by personal agency.

Thanks!

And yes, personal agency - I hadn't thought about it this way, but that's very apt.

Wave two is coming - soon. Wave one only stopped in major cities the rest of the country is still in wave one. Wave 3 will be October unless wave 2 never ends.

Everything else is a huge ??? Helicopter money will continue till the election, it has to for those in power.

25% unemployment is gonna rear it’s ugly head come December/Jan .

Stock market will continue to dislocate from reality, then have another sudden move.

I agree, the only question I have is, will wave 2 or 3 be a mutated version of the current version? If it mutates like the flu, we could be in for a whole lot of hurt as people will be so sick of this 'Stay home' that it will be like the Spanish one. Do they know what the likelihood of mutation is?

I bet on my health, fitness and diet and it already paid off a lot more that I initially thought. I fast (OMAD) and mainly eat animal food. I'm down 20% of body fat and lost 50 pounds eating barbecue almost every day.

Interesting I might try that. How long did it take you to loss that much weight?

When you go low or zerocarb, you'll lose 5-10lbs in the first days/week, because for each gram of carb your body stores as glycogen it needs 4grams of water, and it has around 200-500grams of it. So when you stop feeding your body carbohydrates and burn it all, you will lose water-weight fast.

To lose 50lbs it took me around 4-6 months, but I definitely wasn't in a hurry and after the first weeks I was already enjoying a life so much healthier that it wasn't a struggle to continue. Now there are 2 years I'm on it and never felt better. I don't need to lose weight anymore but a lowcarb diet is also great to lose more unneeded bodyfat and gain lean mass.

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