> I admire Buffet and Munger, but the guys are 90 years old,
Well, then you need to tell me your age, to know whether I should care about what you have written above.
Well, then you need to tell me your age, to know whether I should care about what you have written above.
It’s terribly ironic that they think Musk is just lucky considering Munger and Buffett were able to invest during one of the most prosperous times in American history.
Admit you’re passed your prime and move on. Make way for innovators instead of valuing reading a 10-K and preferring conservative companies you believe are undervalued, or distressed companies you’re going to try to twist their arm into a deal (as Buffett did during the GFC with banks).
Elon doesn't just like to take risks, he would probably agree with being described as "risk obsessed". If your investment strategy is risk aversion and stability, you should avoid Elon. That isn't an outdated perspective, nor is it arrogant in any way - Elon would probably agree with it. The last sentence was an exaggeration of his bias when evaluating any operator to drive his point home clearly.
It's fairly difficult to imagine that Charlie Munger thinks Elon Musk has just gotten lucky for his entire career, and unsurprisingly he isn't saying that in this example. I'm all for fairly criticizing out-of-touch arrogance, but I can't see it being the case here.
Indeed, we'll see if Tesla survives, not only the coincidental depression, but also the multi-hundred-billion-dollar war chest being leveraged against them by the other car companies with a century more experience each, more connections, and broader reach.
It's a bit early to be calling the game is all.
Like reimplementing a distributed multithreaded C++ processing cluster in NodeJS to make the codebase more accessible.
Or like those fashionable people that try to replace a grep shell script with a multi-node ElasticSearch cluster in the cloud, at only 100x the operating costs.
The knowledge that novel does not equal unquestionably good ages extremely well. The "innovator" of today may well be a "debunked hype" by tomorrow.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Chesterton%27s_fence
(this page seems a little more biased than I remember in favor of a conservative viewpoint)
I wonder if in 6 months opening a business quickly will seem prescient, or will it have been a disaster?
What I actually think Musk should do is do what he's done well before, "science the shit out of it". Figure out how to move forward without killing someone (in a rocket accident or a covid accident)
Imagine thinking anyone knows what will happen in the future.
Do continue ignoring all the massive failures and continuous capital / opportunity these supposed kingmakers have.
With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings.
The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.
No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.