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I'm all for proper cost benefit analysis of a lockdown, but the fact that you're asking for good data on the long term effects of a disease that is six months old shows me that you are not interested in it.

Any decision has to be made considering uncertainties. You either accept the risk or you don't.

BTW, this is what we know for sure can happen when you risk normalcy:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1258031434981392389

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While the exact long term effects are obviously unknowable, we can make some reasonable predictions by looking at patients who survived similar viruses such as SARS and MERS.

No, you cannot. Regular colds are also caused by weaker coronaviruses, and leave no serious long-term consequences.

I don’t know if you caught this, but I think that’s exactly what the parent comment was driving at.

What is the risk of recovered patients developing a life-threatening or disabling condition over 6 months after recovering? Do you have any estimate for this risk? 5%? 10%? 50%? 100%?

Why ask a question you know cannot be answered? The disease is barely six months old, if that, so this data doesn't exist. They say there are no stupid questions but they're wrong.

> Why ask a question you know cannot be answered?

One value in doing this is to highlight the importance of problems.

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