How do we “know” either of those facts? You may well be right, but I don’t see a scientific consensus yet.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...
Nowhere is this stated or suggested. Why are you saying that it is? The only point it makes (contrary to all your claims) is we don’t know the duration of immunity and the situation is unpredictable, based on what we know of other coronaviruses. From the article:
>What I have been telling everyone—and no one believes me, but it’s true—is we get coronaviruses every winter even though we’re seroconverted,” says Matthew Frieman, who studies the virus family at the University of Maryland. That is, even though most people have previously developed antibodies to them, they get the viruses again. “We really don’t understand whether it is a change in the virus over time or antibodies that don’t protect from infection,” he says.
> After testing different scenarios, the Harvard group concluded that their projections of how many people end up getting covid-19 in the coming years depended “most crucially” on “the extent of population immunity, whether immunity wanes, and at what rate.” In other words, the critical factor in projecting the path of the outbreak is also a total unknown.
The figure for immunity duration at say 95th percentile seems to be the key figure for herd immunity being viable or not, at least to my layman eyes.
Please stop adding certainty where it is unwarranted. Either supply citations to expert authorities, or be quiet. Otherwise you're just spreading misinformation.
It seems to me that you're right, we can't know for certain until many years later, but in the meantime the world goes on, we can't all just cryogenically freeze ourselves. The best we can do is make educated guesses based on previously existing coronaviruses.
I’m not sure why people can’t seem to fathom that we are still very early in our understanding and experience of this disease, no matter how dramatic its consequences thus far. There’s no way to accelerate things through false confidence or other forms of denialism.
There's also no way to decelerate things through false humility. We're in an urgent crisis, so we must make decisions now based on whatever evidence is available; there's no position of safety we can retreat to while waiting to learn more.
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-fauci-those-who-...
Has anyone here done the research that we can use as a reasonable prior? My assumption was those diseases all produce long lasting antibodies.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...